Nadal – Monaco

Rafael Nadal will play his first final since last years` Roland Garros, taking on local favorite and personal friend Juan “Pico” Monaco tonight in Buenos Aires.

Rafa has obviously not been at his best so far this season, coming after a 2014 in which he struggled with injuries. He lost in the first round at Doha and in the quarters at the Australian Open before starting the clay season last week in Rio, losing to Fognini in the semifinals. Some rusty tennis from Rafa, but he did show glimpses of brilliance and he will obviously improve, just as he did the last times he was injured.

Here in Buenos Aires Nadal played really well, demolishing Arguello and Delbonis before a tougher match yesterday with a red hot Berlocq. Carlos played some incredible tennis this week and challenged Rafa, but Nadal was able to take it 7-6 6-2 in the end, arguably his best match of the season so far.

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Monaco managed to slowly get back into form on the South American clay after some really disappointing performances. He lost in the first round to De Bakker in Sao Paolo, reached the quarters at Rio (took set from Ferrer) and now this final in Buenos Aires. Pico did not have an easy draw and won his last two matches in 3 sets, but still it was pretty good tennis from him to knock out M. Gonzalez, L. Mayer, Cuevas and Almagro. He can play better though, it`s not like he has been red hot (if Almagro was in better form he would have beaten Pico) and he will hope that he can build on this week in order to attack the Top 30 this season.

Rafa Nadal leads the Head 2 Head 5-1 (5-0 on clay courts) and Monaco’s only win came via a retirement in 2007. The Head 2 Head is no fluke here and the matchup is a key factor in this match. Nadal absolutely loves to play against Monaco. The Argentinean`s style resembles that of a Spanish baseline clay courter, a style that Nadal always countered to perfection. Even more important, Monaco has a very poor backhand, so for Nadal this is pretty much like playing a much weaker version of Federer. Rafa`s Head 2 Head wins came by the scores of 6-1 6-1 / 6-1 6-3 / 6-1 6-1 6-2 / 6-2 6-0 6-0 and 6-1 6-0. That`s 13 games won by Monaco in 5 matches and 12 sets – an average of basically a game per set! Obviously the the clash of styles represents a huge handicap for Monaco, who has an inability of winning rallies or winning 4 out of 6 points to even take games away from Nadal.

The matchup and Head 2 Head leave little room for interpretation in this match as far as I`m concerned and I expect another big win by Rafa. It might be just a tad closer than usual considering that Rafa is not at his best (against another player I would probably stay away), but he is clearly improving, played great tennis this week and Monaco is not in his absolute best form either, despite reaching this final.

My tip is Rafa to win and cover the 5,5 game handicap, look for him to pound Monaco`s backhand all night and take all the confidence away from the Argentinean – who might crumble in the second set after playing two very tough matches in the last two days. I wasn`t planning a high stakes bet today, but you have to go with the probabilities, so all in all this clash must see 9 units from me. Prediction: Rafael Nadal – Juan Monaco 6-4 6-1.

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Pick: Nadal -5,5
Odds: 1.90 @ Bet365
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.10
Event date: 1 March