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Must win game for Southampton here, as the Saints are starting to lose ground in the Race for the Premier League Top 4. Palace does not have the same acute need for points, but surely they would love to get something today and will give it their all.
Southampton has just one point in the last three games and 4 points in the last 5, dropping to the sixth place in the Premier League, 4 points behind the last Champions League spot. The most worrying fact for the Saints is that in these past 5 games they managed to score a single goal, in their 1-0 win against QPR. Southampton can not create chances to save their lives right now and obviously they are losing games for that reason, despite some good defensive efforts – after all Southampton has the best defense in the league.
Crystal Palace is sitting rather comfortably in the standings, 8 points above the relegation zone on the 12th place. They got a great win over the weekend, 3-1 at West Ham, the 4th consecutive game in which they scored at least once. The offense is obviously working very well, but at the same time Palace has been leaking too many goals recently, reason for which the West Ham win was their only victory in the last 4 outings.
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Team news & lineups:
Rodriguez, Mayuka and possibly Alderweireld are out for Southampton, while Palace has much more problems – Sanogo, Thomas, Chamakh, Williams, Campbell and Murray are all unavailable, with Mutch and Chung-Young doubtful.
Southampton: Forster – Clyne, Alderweireld, Fonte, Bertrand – Wanyama, Schneiderlin – Elia, Davis, Mane – Pelle
Crystal Palace: Speroni – Ward, Dann, Delaney, Kelly – McArthur, Ledley – Zaha, Puncheon, Bolasie – Gayle
I really like the odds on the under / over market here and I`m talking specifically about the under, which I think is a huge favorite to happen and should be priced around 1.60 at most. Palace is a team that scores and concedes, but the circumstances of this game will nulify that fact. First of all, Southampton has the best defense in the league and they are in a huge slump offensively – they need points badly, so they will adopt a cautious approach, looking to avoid conceding because if they do, it will be extremely hard to win. Playing at home, they will be able to impose their own rhythm, which is based on good defending. Secondly, Palace has some key missings in attack, 4 strikers being ruled out of the lineup – including Murray who scored 2 goals against West Ham.
The circumstances of this game and Southampton’s style of play should counter Palace’s attacking strength and determine an easy under, so that is my tip on this clash. 8 units seems like a reasonable stake for this bet. Prediction: Southampton – Crystal Palace 1-0.
Pick: under 2,5
Odds: 1.70 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 5.6
Event date: 3 March
You should stack an unit also on correct score, man.
Actually I did some investigating recently and it seems like I should have a bit of profit on these correct scores for this year at least. Still, it`s not my type of bet, too little control. I`ll try and keep a record of these for a longer period of time and see how it turns out.