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Maxime Authom takes on Jurgen Zopp in the first round at the Quimper challenger. The surface in this tournament is Greenset, Hard.
Authom (178 ATP) had a good run last week, reaching the semifinals at Cherbourg in very similar playing conditions to the ones at Quimper. The Belgian defeated Kovalik, Daniel and Kravchuk before losing pretty heavily to Gombos (4-6 1-6), but Gombos was in breathtaking form last week, so the defeat was rather normal. Authom has been in pretty good form overall this season, made a lot of deep run in challengers and has wins over guys like Vanni or Przysiezny.
Zopp (157 ATP) had a really solid second part of 2014, ending the year with a title at the Helsinki challenger and even though he seems to have lost a little bit of that form, he is still playing good tennis this season. The Estonian has a good serve and builds on it with deep, flat groundstrokes but he`s not anything special and can be inconsistent at times. Zopp is coming after a loss against Berrer in the Wroclaw challenger second round two weeks ago.
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The Head 2 Head is 0-0, these two guys never bet before on the tour. There does not seem to be any matchup advantage for either of the two, so this part of the analysis won`t tell us much.
Zopp is priced at around 1.55 and it`s really not fair as far as I`m concerned, despite the fact that punters are betting on the Estonian and his odds are dropping – the difference between him and Authom is not too big and the Belgian seems to be in better short term form after his semifinal run at Cherbourg last week. They played more or less at a similar level for the whole season actually. Authom already beat a lot of players from Zopp’s quality range this season and I really see no reason for which he can`t pull off another one. It looks like a 50-50 match according to my analysis, so the value is clearly on Authom’s side and he deserves a shot.
My tip is Maxime Authom to win, good value and I personally actually see him as the small favorite after drawing confidence from last week`s run in almost identical conditions for tennis. Prediction: Maxime Authom – Jurgen Zopp 6-4 3-6 7-5.
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Pick: Authom
Odds: 2.40 @ Sbobet
Stake: 6
Possible profit: 8.40
Event date: 3 March
Zopp is the better player on the baseline for sure… but you never know. I think that the odds are fair here.
Yes, Zopp is overall the better player, but not by much. At 1.50 he should really have a number of advantages, but I can`t see them today, that`s why I think there is great value on Authom.
Would you make a bet on Zopp at these odds with confidence today? I guess the answer would be “Hell no”.
Hell no… That’s why I didn’t wrote any preview on it 🙂
Seems to have been a great call from you
easier than I expected honestly.