Raonic – Nishikori

Milos Raonic will take on Kei Nishikori in the 4th rubber of this Canada – Japan Davis Cup tie. The Canadians are in the lead 2-1 after winning the doubles match. In the first day Raonic and Nishikori both won their matches easily in 3 sets. The tie is played on indoor hard in Vancouver, Canada.

I am a bit disappointed with Raonic this season. After a fantastic season last year I was expecting him to reach the next level and start beating top players, but that is not happening right now. In his first three tournaments he lost to Federer, Djokovic and Wawrinka without ever having a real chance of winning, taking only one set in the process. Additionally he managed to lose to Bolelli in his last outing three weks ago in Metz. Milos is playing good tennis, but he is not in his best form right now and clearly still misses that special something to defeat the big boys. In the first rubber of this tie he defeated Tatsuma Ito 6-2 6-1 6-2.

Nishikori is having a very good season until now, continuing his brilliant 2014 end of the year campaign, when he reached the US Open final. Kei started the year with a loss to Raonic in the Brisbane quarterfinals and also lost to Wawrinka in the Australian Open quarterfinals, but went on to reach two finals in a row at Memphis (won vs. Anderson) and Acapulco (lost to Ferrer). Nishikori overcame Pospisil in three sets in the second rubber of this Canada – Japan tie, 6-4 7-6 6-3.

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Nishikori leads the Head 2 Head 4-2 (3-1 on hard) and the interesting fact is that these two have developed a rivalry last season, playing 4 times, with Nishikori winning 3 – and also winning both meetings played on hard. Aside from a win at Wimbledon, Raonic seemed unable to counter Nishikori’s style of play and the Head 2 Head is not a fluke here – Kei holds a matchup advantage. Raonic did win the only meeting this year, but it was an absolute thriller at Brisbane, an ATP 250 tournament.

I really like Nishikori to win this. Both guys showed some good tennis on Friday, but Kei is playing better this year, he`s the better player overall and most importantly he has a matchup advantage over Milos – the Head 2 Head will be key. If he plays his best tennis he can not lose this as far as I`m concerned, the question is will he do that? With the tie on the line and in good form overall, I expect Nishikori to be 100% focused and come up with the goods – that should mean a win, even if it could go to 5 sets as long as Raonic will also play well (after all Milos does have the small advantage of playing at home).

This is the last chance for Japan, Nishikori has to keep them alive, while Raonic might just have in the back of his head the fact that even if he loses, Canada should still win the last rubber. A small edge in motivation maybe for Kei if the match goes to distance. Look for Nishikori to force a lot of movement from Raonic, trouble him with fast, quick shots as usual and put pressure on his serve a couple of times per set. My tip is Nishikori to win. Prediction: Milos Raonic – Kei Nishikori 6-7 7-6 4-6 5-7.

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Pick: Nishikori
Odds: 1.88 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 7.92
Event date: 8 March