St Etienne – Lorient

Sunday afternoon football in France, with Saint Etienne hosting Lorient in the 28th Ligue 1 round.

St Etienne just reached the French Cup semifinals with a win at penalties over Boulougne … a breath of fresh air after 3 games without a win, but reality is that they failed to beat even Boulougne in 120 minutes and they have not won in over a month. Going further with the statistic analysis, Saint Etienne only defeated Ligue 3 National side Red Star in the last 8 matches. They dropped to the 5th place and there is real urgency to start winning if they want to play Europa League football next year. Hosts continue to have big problems with injuries. Baysse, Cohade, Pogba, Saint-Maximin, Brisson and Diomande are unavailable … Sall and Tabanou are questionable.

St Etienne lineup: Ruffier – Clerc, Theophile-Catherine, Perrin, Tabanou – N’Guemo, Clement, Lemoine – Monnet-Pacquet, Erding, Gradel

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Lorient are only 2 points clear of relegation on the 17th place so every point they can gain would be golden. However despite the poor classification and the 1-0 loss at Evian last round, Lorient is actually playing good football at the moment … before the Evian game they had 2 wins and 2 draws, including a 1-1 result with Lyon. Visitors are playing very well tactically now and will hope to take advantage of the poor form of St Etienne. Lorient will not have Kone, Autret and Coutadeur in the lineup. Jouffre, Gassama, Lavigne and Philippoteaux are questionable.

Lorient lineup: Leconte – Pedrinho, Bellugou, Lautoa, Goff – Barthelme, Abdullah, N’Dong, Guerreiro – J. Ayew, Mesloub

Saint Etienne will obviously start winning at some point, but with their current form and missing so many players from the lineup, they have every chance of blowing this game. Lorient is in good shape, plays well on the road (won 4 of 9 matches, 4-0-5) and very well organized, so they have what it takes to put another nail in St Etienne’s coffin. There is value to be taken on a bet on the visitors for sure … they will fight their hearts out to gain crucial points to save themselves for relegation so my tip will be Lorient +1 asian handicap.

The analysis clearly suggests an x2, but even is Lorient loses, it looks very unlikely that St Etienne can win by more than two goals … last time St Etienne won by 2 or more was in December.  Pick Lorient +1 asian handicap. Correct score prediction: St Etienne – Lorient 1-1.

Pick: Lorient (+1 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.74 @ Sbobet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 7.40
Event date: 8 March