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Celta Vigo hosts Athletic Bilbao in a match that has little importance in terms of standings. With 12th rounds to go in La Liga both teams are floating in mid table: Celta is 9th, Athletic is 8th. Earlier in the season in Bilbao it was 1-1 between these two and they also met in the Copa Del Rey where Athletic won 4-4 aggregate.
The hosts lost 4-1 to Villarreal last round at El Madrigal, but otherwise are in generally good form … it was the only loss in the last 6 rounds for Celta, a timeframe in which they also won 3 games and got two draws. With little pressure from the standings Celta is playing freely and reverted to the excellent goalscoring form they had in the start of the season … the hosts have now scored at least one goal in 10 of the last 11 matches. For today Oubina and probably Fontas are unavailable.
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Athletic Bilbao is playing some of the best football they played all season … finally showing their potential with three wins in a row, including one over Real Madrid last week. Athletic Bilbao did not concede a goal in the last 4 matches in La Liga but on the other hand their defensive problems were highlighted by Torino in the Europa League (2-2 and 2-3). Herrerin and Gurpegi are unavailable for the visitors. Iraola, Iturraspe and Rico are questionable.
Both teams are playing with no pressure and are very capable to score goals … especially in the last few weeks their goalscoring form has been excellent. I see Celta and Athletic going for the win today, playing direct, goal – oriented football with a nice rhythm. As previously stated, Celta scored in 10 of the last 11 matches and Athletic Bilbao scored in 11 of the last 12, so the stats are pretty telling (also considering the other 3 meetings this year: 4-2, 0-2, 1-1) … not that stats ever tell the whole story.
I expect both teams to score and that will be my tip. Bilbao’s recent defensive form is a little worrying, but looking at how Celta performed recently it is hard to see them go scoreless. Eight units looks like a very reasonable stake for this bet with a good ROI projected. Correct score prediction: Celta Vigo – Athletic Bilbao 1-1.
Pick: Both to score
Odds: 2.10 @ Bet365
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8.8
Event date: 14 March
