Raonic – Nadal

Milos Raonic and Rafael Nadal will square off in what should be a very interesting Indian Wells quarterfinal.

Raonic has been very solid in this tournament, winning all his matches in straight sets (Bolelli, Dolgopolov, Robredo). Obviously not the best opponents, but nevertheless dangerous opponents. However, Raonic’s problem remains his total inability to defeat the top guys – he seemed to turn a corner late last year beating Federer, but this year he went back to his usual self, failing to trouble the likes of Djokovic, Wawrinka of Federer. Raonic has a 16-37 win-loss record against Top 10 players, horrible for a guy who is ranked 6th – and most of his wins came against the likels of Gasquet or Isner, barely Top 10 material.

One can see with the naked eye that Nadal is improving after last years’ injury and here at the Indian Wells the Spaniard played his best tennis in a long time. Devastating wins over Sijsling, Young and Simon, but it has to be said that the only worthy opponent, Gilles Simon, played a rather poor match in the last round. Still, Rafa is looking good, hitting longer balls, moving better, gaining rhythm and confidence.

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The Head 2 Head is 5-0 for Rafa (4-0 on hard), reflecting total dominance by Nadal. He lost a single set against Raonic in the 5 meetings and not only that, but he never even let Milos reach a tiebreak – which is an impressive feat to say the least.

If Nadal was at his best I would expect a classic blowout today – he`s not, but he`s getting close and he should still win rather comfortably against the Canadian. Rafa is playing at a level that is too high for Raonic in this tournament and this, coupled with the categorical Head 2 Head matchup, should allow him to hold serve and put pressure on Raonic’s serve a couple of time per set. Looking at the history between these two, a handicap win for Nadal seems more than likely – he covered the spread in all of his 5 meetings with Milos.

All in all my tip will be Nadal to win with a 2,5 game handicap and I have full confidence that he will get a minimum of 1 more break than Raonic – which in all likely hood will mean a winning pick, even if Milos manages to snatch a set via tiebreak (unlikely in my eyes). Prediction: Milos Raonic – Rafael Nadal 6-7 3-6.

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Pick: Nadal -2,5 game handicap
Odds: 2.10 @ Unibet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 11
Event date: 20 March