Utrecht – NAC Breda

Utrecht opens the 27th round of football in Eredivisie by hosting NAC Breda today.

Utrecht was on a run of 4 undefeated matches capped with a 6-2 win vs. Alkmaar, before losing last round 3-1 at Cambuur. The hosts are on the 12th place but relegation is not an issue … they have 9 points over the 16th place and can play relaxed until the end of the season, maybe attack a Top 10 place. Hosts haven’t been very good at home this season with a stats line of 5 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses … but their last 3 matches on home court were amazing (6-1 vs. Dordrecht, 0-0 vs. Feyenoord and the above mentioned 6-2 vs. Alkmaar). Utrecht’s lineup will not have Boymans and Zullo, who are injured.

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NAC Breda is fighting for live in the Eredivisie … 17th place (playout spot), 3 points away from safety. Last round brought an absolutely huge victory for Breda, 1-0 in the last minute vs. relegation rivals Go Ahead Eagles … which will give them massive confidence coming into today’s clash. Visitors aren’t too good away from home, the stats showing this clearly: 2 wins, 3 draws, 8 losses. NAC Breda continues to miss Damcevski and Koch, old injuries.

The odds for Utrecht are too low and the value is all over Breda. Utrecht’s good run (but short) came to an end last round and they are no more than a mid table team at best … they have nothing to play for and meet an opponent that is desperate to get something from the match. 1.50 for an Utrecht win is a joke and we could well see an upset here … and if Utrecht will win, it is unlikely to be by more than one goal.

My tip will be Breda +1 asian handicap. Correct score prediction: Utrecht – NAC Breda 1-1.

Pick: NAC Breda (+1 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.09 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 7.63
Event date: 20 March