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Tomas Berdych and Roger Federer will meet for the 19th time in the Indian Wells quarterfinal, with the Swiss maestro leading the Head 2 Head 12-6.
Berych had an excellent year so far, playing top tennis, much better than last season and blowing opponents of the court. He did the same thing early in Indian Wells with Stakhovsky and Johnson before surprisingly struggling with Rosol in the Round 16. Despite showing a very good level, Berdych has one major problem this year – for some reason, he can’t translate his form in the matches against the big boys.
The Czech Number 1 looked absolutely amazing in the early rounds of all tournaments he played, only to be humbled each time he met a Top 10 player (except a rusty Nadal at the Australian Open). He lost to Ferrer, Murray, Wawrinka and Djokovic without standing a real chance, despite being rated very highly ahead of those matches. This is unusual for Berdych, but it`s becoming a trend.
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Federer has done very well this week, looking very sharp and focused – after all he does have a final to defend. Fedex cruised trough his three matches against Schwartzman, Seppi and Sock. The opposition was surely not top class, but never going above 6-4 in a set is a good indication of how well Roger is playing. Another one (and more important) is his serve: only 2 break points allowed, both against Seppi and only one break of serve conceded. When Roger’s serve is working, that`s always an excellent barometer for his level.
Roger leads the Head 2 Head 12-6 but the truth is he always had problems against Tomas, especially on hard, where he only leads 6-5. When Federer is not in his best form and Berdych is playing Well, the Czech is able to take advantage with deep returns and his usual power play. When things are reversed, quality speaks and Roger takes it relatively easy.
That doesn`t seem to be the case today – Federer is playing very well and Berdych’s form seems more or less irrelevant considering how poor he performed against the top players this year. Additionally, he seemed a little off in his latest match with Rosol and he might not be in his best shape entering this match. The odds on Federer are a little bit too high in my opinion, I can`t see him losing this and if things go according to logic, Federer should win in two sets.
My tip is Roger Federer to win this quarterfinal clash in straight sets (with a -1,5 set handicap), setting up a stellar and long awaited “Fedal” showdown in the semifinals with rival Rafael Nadal. It won`t be easy to defeat Berdych 2:0, Tomas usually troubles Federer (Roger won in straight just once since 2009), but odds above evens are surely worth the investment in the current circumstances. Prediction: Tomas Berdych – Roger Federer 4-6 6-7.
Live streaming for Berdych vs. Federer available at Bet365 for all funded accounts.
Pick: Federer -1,5 set handicap
Odds: 2.14 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 9.12
Event date: 20 March
