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In a weekend that sees the Six Nations come to a conclusion, there`s also the final round of the second tier European Competition, the European Championship (former IRB Nations Cup) and I`m seeing much more betting value here in the big rivalry between Romania and Georgia.
Romania and Georgia are the best European teams aside for the ones competing in the Six Nations and this afternoon match in Bucharest is basically the final of the tournament. Whoever wins this will lift the trophy, with Georgia also having the option to draw. I would love Romania to get a win today, but unfortunately, in the current state of facts, it seems extremely unlikely.
I really thought that Romania is going in the right direction and improving under Lynn Howell, I still do, but the latest matches have been absolutely horrific – a defeat to Russia and a dramatic win against a semi-amateur Germany team, with Romania playing extremely poor and slow rugby. There were some players missing and some of them will come back today in the derby with Georgia (Macovei, Ursache, Lazar), but Romania will still miss 3 key pieces – best player Catalin Fercu from Saracens, Paulica Ion and Florin Vlaicu. For a team like Romania, such quality players are hard to find and the first two are clearly irreplaceable.
Georgia continues to progress as a Rugby Nation and they are the best team in this European Championship, they have been for some while and they defeated Romania regularly in the last years. The Georgians went about their business as usual in the competition and won all their matches comfortably without even trying too hard – a thing that could end up costly, as they missed most of the offensive bonus points which could have already assured them the trophy.
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Lineups:
Romania: 1.Ţăruş, 2.Turashvili, 3.Ursache – 4.Coste, 5.Sîrbe – 6.Lucaci, 8.Macovei (c), 7.Ursache – 9.Calafeteanu, 10.Dumbravă – 11.Manole, 12.Gal, 13.Dascălu, 14.Apostol – 15.Botezatu.
Georgia: 1.Nariashvili, 2.Natriashvili, 3.Zirakashvili – 4.Nemsade, 5.Mikautadze – 6.Sutiashvili (c), 8.Gorgodze, 7.Tkhilaishvili – 9.Lobzbanidze, 10.Malaguradze – 11.Todua, 12.Sharikadze, 13.Kacharava, 14.Mchedlidze – 15.Kvirikashvili
Romania’s form and team news do not give them too many chances to pull this one off against a clearly stronger opponent. Missing 3 key players is something a team like Romania can`t cope with, we saw that in the matches with Russia and Germany. It will be a tight match (Romania will surely give the best effort), played mostly between the forwards on a difficult pitch, but Georgia will pull off a close win, like they did in 7 out of the last 9 meetings (1 loss, 1 draw) and 4 of the last 5 – a Head 2 Head matchup that pretty much tells the whole story.
The odds on the visitors are brilliant, really shouldn`t be higher than 1.50. This really looks like a safe bet and anything over 1.50 is worth taking with 10 units in my book. My tip is Georgia to win. An under would also be good value considering the styles of the teams, the matchup, the muddy pitch and the fact that Romania lost it`s only real wing threat, Fercu. There`s a good chance we won`t see more than a try. However, online bookies are not providing us with an under over market. Only 4 bookies have the match on offer, with Bet365 providing the best odds. All in all, this is the bet of the weekend for me. Prediction: Romania – Georgia 12 – 16.
Pick: Georgia
Odds: 1.66 @ Bet365
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 6.6
Event date: 21 March
