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Surprising Women’s final in Indian Wells, with Number 3 seed Simona Halep taking on the former world number 1, Jelena Jankovic.
Halep got a huge break in the semifinal due to Serena Williams’ retirement before the match, so the Romanian got a walkover in a match that she was expected to lose. Halep did not play her absolute best tennis here in Indian Wells, playing a deciding set in 3 of her 4 matches and not meeting any top players – however, Halep did play very well and she did face dangerous opponents like Suarez Navarro or Pliskova. Even if she was pushed to a decider three times, she won all matches clearly, not spending too much time on court and responding with authority after losing a set.
Nobody expected Jankovic to reach the final in Indian Wels, her form has been poor for some time and particularly bad this year, winning just 2 out of 6 matches prior to this week. Her achievement is surely impressive and Jelena showed some of her vintage form, but fact is she does not look like a challenger against the top players (and probably never will be again).
Jankovic did not meet any top 15 player, played 3 tough sets in each of her first three matches, than defeated Tsurenko via retirement and Lisicki in the semis. Jankovic was a set and a break down against an unforced error machine like Lisicki, before Sabine eventually collapsed physically after playing a draining match in the previous round with Pennetta. Really not so impressive stuff by Jelena.
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The Head 2 Head is 3-1 for Halep and the Romanian won the last three metings. All matches went to a deciding set, but since Halep’s emergence she clearly had Jankovic’s number, also winning 2 sets to nil. Jankovic is playing a similar brand of tennis with Simona, but she is way older and her quality is not on par with the Romanian’s, not anymore. As such, Jankovic does not have the weapons to surprise Halep and the Head 2 Head is a natural reflection of that.
Even if Simona did not play her absolute best tennis in this tournament, she was solid and she is in excellent form, having a fantastic year so far. This could be her first Master Series title so the motivation will clearly be sky high. I really can`t see how Jankovic could pull off a win today or even keep it close, she doesn`t have the style, the weapons or the form to do it. Experience is her only edge and I can`t see that being enough. I was thinking about a 2:0 win for Halep, but looking at the Head 2 Head, I reckon it`s better to go with a game handicap – Halep never beat Jankovic 2-0, but always covered the spread.
I expect Halep to be more consistent from the baseline and move better. As the match progresses, Jankovic will probably tire, as it will pe a physicall match, she`s 30 years old and she had a lot of tough matches in this tournament. My tip is Halep to win with a 4 game handicap. Prediction: Simona Halep – Jelena Jankovic 7-5 6-1.
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Pick: Halep -4
Odds: 1.83 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 7.47
Event date: 22 March
