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Azerbaijan hosts Malta in a clash between the worst two sides in the Euro 2016 qualifying Group H. The two teams have just one point combined, it belongs to Malta thanks to a 1-1 draw in Bulgaria.
Robert Prosinecki’s men are having a dreadful campaign … lost all 4 games, scored 2 goals and allowed 11. They played horrible football except for the game in Italy where they narrowly lost 2-1 towards the end of the match … but after only a few days they lost 6-0 to Croatia and than 0-1 vs. Norway, so the Italy match was mostly an accident. As club football is improving thanks to foreign players, the National team is hurting more and more. Azerbaijan views this match as a must win to save some honor, but it will not be easy against a team that plays good defensive football, crowding the box and not allowing spaces.
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Malta scored a single goal in this campaign … and that was over a penalty kick in the 1-1 draw in Bulgaria. The visitors have a decent defense and that could help them keep Azerbaijan at bay, but their offense is so terrible, you really can not expect them to score against anybody.
The under over market is very interesting on this game, I find the odds on the under to be way to high … I would not rate the under above 1.50. It will most likely be an ugly and boring match, in which Malta will play defensive football looking for a 0-0 draw or maybe a lucky break to win 1-0 … and Azerbaijan will struggle a lot to create anything against a crowded defense. The last meeting between Azerbaijan and Malta took place in 2013 and Azerbaijan won 3-0, but some time has passed since than.
I had to choose between under 2,5 goals and ‘both to score – no’, I am choosing the under because the odds are pretty similar and 1-1 is more likely than 3-0 / 0-3. None of the two teams scored more than 1 goal in a match since 2013! My tip will be under 2,5 goals and the bet looks safe enough to attack with maximum stakes.
Correct score prediction: Azerbaijan – Malta 0-0.
Pick: under 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.65 @ Betsson
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 6.5
Event date: 28 March
