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Albania hosts Armenia in the 4th round of the Euro 2016 qualifiers, Group I.
Albania has 4 points so far after 3 matches and sits on the 3rd place … which would send them to the playoffs. Armenia and Serbia are the danger for Albania and the hosts can eliminate Armenia from the race if they win this one. The players stated in the press that they will do everything in their power to qualify for Euro 2016 and that they believe they will get the win today … morale is good among the hosts. Mavraj and Curri are the only new injury worries for Albania.
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Armenia is last in the standings with a single point in 3 matches (1-1 vs Serbia) … a good indicative of the football they played so far. The tactical approach for Armenia is to defend on two lines, crowd the midfield and punish opponents on counterattacks … the first part is working reasonably well (only 4 goals conceded), but the second not, because there is no quality up front.
This is a crucial game for both teams, there is also a rivalry, so it does not get any more important than this for both Albania and Armenia. Hosts are rightfully favored by the odds, but they are not good enough to have it easy vs. an Armenia team that will again crowd the midfield and the defensive area … look for cautious football played by both teams, nobody can take any risks and it should end up with under 2,5 goals.
The under / over market has the best value today … my tip will be under 2,5 goals. Armenia will sit back and park the bus, Albania will struggle for 90 minutes to break them down … I`m not sure if they will, but it’s possible. Even if the odds on this bet are low, they are playable and fair. Correct score prediction: Albania – Armenia 1-0.
Pick: under 2,5
Odds: 1.53 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 4.24
Event date: 29 March
