Djokovic – Murray

Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray square off in what should be a very interesting final at the Miami Open Masters.

Djokovic played his best match of the tournament in the semis, showing virtually zero weaknesses in his 7-6 6-2 routing of in form John Isner. It was a bit surprising that Nole won so easy, because Isner is generally a tough opponent for him and the Serbian hasn’t been at his absolute best earlier in this tournament, struggling a bit with the likes of Ferrer, Dolgopolov or Klizan. However, after the display against Isner, it`s obvious that Djokovic was just conserving his energy in the first rounds – after all he has just won Indian Wells in an exhausting thriller with Federer.

Andy Murray keeps on improving this season and is back in Grand Slam contending form. However, there`s still that one final step he needs to overcome – beating the top guys on the big stage. He had two chances this year, both times against Djokovic and both times he failed – honorably in the Australian Open final and miserably in Indian Wells (2-6 3-6). Murray had a good tournament so far despite small blinks here and there – like Djokovic, he played his best match in the semis, dispatching a red hot Berdych 6-4 6-4.

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Djokovic leads the Head 2 Head 17-8 (15-6 on hard) and won the previous 6 meetings, including two this year. Nole also won the last 9 Head 2 Head matches played on hard courts, which says a lot. Indeed, the H2H has been affected by Murray’s struggles to come back from injury last year, but Nole still holds Andy’s number usually. It`s simple actually – both have the absolute same playing style, Djokovic is just better at it.

Djokovic owns the Head 2 Head, especially lately and he demolished Murray just two weeks ago in Indian Wells. Looking at that match, you can`t help but feel that Murray has no chance today, but I expect Andy to step up and take Djokovic to the edge. Clearly he will be as focused and motivated as ever to finally get one over Djokovic, to finally prove he is back in top form and to win a big tournament ago. Andy will be virtually possessed with motivation and ambition tonight. Let`s not forget that in Australian Open Murray went toe to toe with Djokovic for two sets and a half, so we can`t judge based only on the Indian Wells meeting.

I expect Murray to come out strong, play his best tennis and avoid another one sided loss. He will do anything to avoid that, it would be a colossal blow to his confidence. Djokovic is playing lights out and he should still win this, but looking at Andy`s own form and motivation, it will probably be in a tough three setter. Looking at the betting options, I reckon the best one is over 22 games. It has the same odds as Murray to win a set, but it can also be covered in two sets. The handicap line at 4,5 initially seemed a better bet – but I would not be surprised if Nole covers this spread even if Murray takes a set, so I`m sticking with the over.

All in all my tip is over 22 games. Prediction: Novak Djokovic – Andy Murray 6-4 5-7 6-2.

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Pick: over 22 games
Odds: 2.04 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 9.36
Event date: 5 April