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This should be a nice game today between Petrolul and Vitesse. Petrolul finished on 3rd place last season in Romania, while Vitesse had a fantastic season in the strong Eredivisie, finishing 4th. On paper the visitors are favorites to advance, they are the better team, but the romanians are no pushovers and can cause some trouble for the dutch. Especially at home, with their fanatic supporters, Petrolul can hold their own against their more famous opponents. The “yellow wolves” are very good on home turf.
Petrolul and Vitesse were two offensive-minded teams last season, scoring goals, also conceding a few, but both teams lost their best goalscorers this summer, Bokila (Petrolul, ran from the club) and Bony (Vitesse, sold to Swansea for 12 million). These were not only their best goalscorers, but their best players, they were the main part of every offensive move of these teams and represent immense losses. Neither Petrolul or Vitesse has managed to bring proper replacements.
Following these departures, both teams began to focus more on defense. We don`t have any official matches to reach a proper conclusion about Vitesse, but they were bad on offense in their friendly games, scoring only two goals in total against Leverkusen, Lierse and Standard Liege. They clearly struggle without Bony. If Vitesse is still in pre-season, Petrolul already played 5 official matches this season, and they are obviously putting a great deal of work on the defensive end, they even brought in some solid defensive players. The romanians kept three clean sheets in these five matches, and in the league they have a goal difference of 2-1 after two games. Petrolul is a new team tactically, they should end the season as one of the best two-three defensive teams in Romania.
Petrolul also has some important missings for today, all of them hurting the offense: attacking left-back Alcenat, central midfielder Marinescu and main striker Dore (ex-Angers), who was meant to replace Bokila. The hosts have no central striker today, and they need that to play their game. It will be an improvisation from coach Cosmin Contra.
Vitesse is clearly weaker than last season, losing a couple more players besides Bony and not bringing any new faces into the squad. They are still better than the romanians, but not by a big margin.
Taking all the above factors into account, a tight game is expected today, very cautious from both sides. The rythm should be good, but the ball should stick mostly in the middle of the pitch. I think Petrolul has an edge playing at home on a sold-out arena, but they won`t risk anything and Vitesse won`t mind this approach. The safe bet here is the under. Petrolul and Vitesse are having huge problems in offense at the moment, and when you add the stakes of the game and the fact that it`s a well-balanced match-up (at least in this first leg), I can`t see more than 2 goals being scored.
Pick: under 2,5
Odds: 1.91 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.28
Event date: 1 August
