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Atletico Madrid hosts Real Madrid in the Champions League quarterfinals first leg, a repeat of last years’ final.
Atletico is doing better recently … hosts won 4 consecutive games without conceding a goal before drawing with Malaga 2-2 over the weekend … but clearly Atletico had this match with Real in the back of their minds and some top players like Godin or Mandzukic were not in the lineup for Diego Simeone. Hosts will draw confidence from their recent 4-0 win vs. Real and from the recent record against their rivals. Atletico only has Garcia doubtful, but he is the only injurry worry and he is expected to be fit anyway.
Atletico Madrid lineup: Oblak – Jesus Gamez, Miranda, Godin, Juanfran – Koke, Tiago, Gabi, Arda – Griezmann, Mandzukic
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Real Madrid also found some nice rhythm lately after a bad period … they played a decent game at Camp Nou vs. Barcelona … than followed the International break and after that Real won 9-1 vs. Granada, 2-0 vs. Rayo Vallecano and 3-0 over Elche. But the fact remains that Real did not play their best football except from the batch with Granada … against Rayo they were actually very poor. Ancelotti will try to find a way to finally get one over Simeone, but it will not be easy at Vicente Calderon. Los Blancos have a full squad available.
Real Madrid lineup: Casillas – Carvajal, Pepe, Ramos, Marcelo – Kroos, James, Modric – Bale, Ronaldo, Benzema
Atletico did not lose to Real Madrid since last years’ Champions League final and even than it was a draw in regular time. Eight consecutive matches without a victory for Real and they lost 4-0 two months ago at Calderon when Atletico was not even playing their best football. It was so clear that Simeone’s tactics are a total mistery for Ancelotti. Real has a healthy lineup finally and that should make it harder for the hosts … but Simeone has the number of this Real Madrid team and I doubt he will lose at home.
My tip will be an Atletico win with +0 asian handicap … they should sneak a close win and everything will be decided at Bernabeu. Correct score prediction: Atletico Madrid – Real Madrid 1-0.
Pick: Atletico Madrid (+0 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.03 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8.24
Event date: 14 April
