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Gilles Simon and David Ferrer are set to fight it out in a baseline battle with long exchanges, the type of war that Ferrer has usually won against Gilles. But the story could be different in this Monte Carlo 3rd round encounter.
Simon played very good tennis this week, no surprise considering that Monte Carlo is one of his favorite tournaments. It is true that Gilles did not face top class opposition, but he did not lose a set or reach a tiebreak against Balleret and Paire. Gilles is building on some recent good form and, while he can still play better, he`s surely a threat to anybody on this surface.
With a 22-3 win-loss record this season, it`s hard to argue that the bookies are giving Ferrer odds as low as 1.15 to win this one. The spaniard is in top form, on the back of a quarterfinal showing in Miami, where he challenged Djokovic in a 5-7 5-7 defeat. Here in Monte Carlo he defeated Estrella in his 2nd round opener, but the Dominican player retired after the 1st set.
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Ferrer leads the Head 2 Head 7-2 (4-0 on clay) and he won the previous 6 meetings, including two this year – 6-2 7-5 5-7 7-6 at the Australian Open and 7-6 6-0 just two weeks ago in Miami. On clay he did not lose a single set to Simon in 4 meetings. It`s obvious that Ferrer holds Simon’s number, as he`s just better at the baseline game than the Frenchman. This is accentuated on clay, so Gilles will have his work cut out for him if he is to get a result.
There are a lot of arguments in the analysis that suggest a clear Ferrer win, but seeing Simon play lately, I can`t help but feel he has a fighting chance. The Frenchman is playing solid tennis and, even though he lost twice to Ferrer this year, he was able to take a set and reach two tiebreaks in those matches – so the Head 2 Head is not really so awful this year. On clay it is and that`s a reason for such high odds on Gilles, he has huge problems on the red dirt against David – however with Ferrer not having too much practice on clay (playing just 1 set of tennis coming into this match), Simon might take advantage and start strong.
I expect David Ferrer to win in the end, but I can really see Simon snatching a set away from the Spaniard. For extra safety I will not go with a +1,5 set handicap, instead my tip will be over 20 games – which is as low as you can get for such a match and can easily be covered in 2 sets as well. Prediction: Gilles Simon – David Ferrer 7-5 2-6 3-6.
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Pick: over 20 games
Odds: 1.97 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 6.79
Event date: 16 April
