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Mikhail Youzhny takes on local favorite Marius Copil in the first round at ATP Bucharest.
Youzhny is having his worst ever start to a season, posting a 2-8 win – loss record on the main draw of ATP tournaments. The russian is totally out of rhythm, he can’t keep the ball in play, makes tons of unforced errors and is serving poorly as well. Youzhny always had short streches of poor form in his career, but right now things are getting out of hand, as he`s playing like this since the end of last year. For an inconsistent guy like Mikhail, who has an offensive brand of tennis, it is virtually impossible to win in poor form – either he hits his winners or he blows them meters out, there`s no two ways about it.
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Copil is in poor form himself, despite starting the season strong with a second round showing at Australian Open, where he lost a tight three setter with Wawrinka. After that, his only notable performance was a win over Dudi Sela in the Davis Cup. It is customary for Copil to play his best tennis only a few times in a year, while in the rest of the season he struggles with form and injuries – that`s why he`s barely in the Top 200 right now, despite having Top 100 talent for sure. Fortunately for him, Bucharest is one of the places where he`s able to play his best tennis, being more consistent than usual. Last year he defeated Mannarino 6-1 6-4, two years ago he defeated an in form Kamke in the same manner. Only one time did Marius Copil fail to win a single match at this tournament.
The two players never met before on tour, but it`s pretty obvious that nobody has a matchup advantage. What I can say is that Youzhny`s inconsistency will not work well for him against Copil’s big serve. The romanian will be able to generally keep serve, so if Youzhny makes mistakes and concedes a break, it will be hard to recover on the Copil serve.
I reckon Copil has a good chance to win this today and it`s only natural that the odds are dropping on him right now, after initially the price for Youzhny went down. The Romanian is far from being a solid player himself but He`s at home, he always plays well in Bucharest and meets a player in total disarray, who could lose to virtually anybody right now. Look for Copil to generally hold serve and take advantage of Youzhny’s unforced errors to get break points. My tip is Copil to win. Prediction: Mikhail Youzhny – Marius Copil 5-7 6-2 3-6.
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Pick: Copil
Odds: 2.67 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 11.69
Event date: 20 April
