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AS Monaco and Juventus will square off with a Champions League semifinal on the line, after Juventus won the first leg 1-0 due to a controversial (to say the least) penalty.
Monaco deserved at least a draw from the first match and they surely felt robbed after the penalty awarded against them. 0-1 is a tough score to come back from, but the performance will give them hope they can turn it around. Recent form however has been rather poor with just one win in the previous 5 matches, despite playing 3 times at home – including a 1-1 home draw against Rennes over the weekend.
Juventus is in fine form, winning 2-0 over a red hot Lazio on Saturday, bouncing back with authority after two mediocre performances against Parma and Monaco. If we exclude the accident against Parma, where in all honesty Juve didn`t even try too much, the visitors have 8 consecutive wins – all off them coming to nil! Allegri’s defense has been nothing short of brilliant lately and against an offensively challenged side like Monaco, it could be the key to progressing to the semifinals.
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Team news & lineups:
Traore, Toulalan, Kondogbia and possibly Bakayoko are out for Monaco. Juve continues to miss Pogba, Asamoah, Caceres and Romulo. Vidal is slightly doubtful, but he should be in the starting lineup.
AS Monaco: Subasic – Toure, Abdennour, Wallace, Kurzawa – Fabinho, Moutinho, Silva – Ferreira Carrasco, M. Carvalho, Berbatov
Juventus: Buffon – Lichtsteiner, Bonucci, Chiellini, Evra – Vidal, Pirlo, Marchisio – Pereyra – Tevez, Morata
The first leg was an excellent opportunity for Monaco, it was their ideal matchup, playing on the road, having the chance to counterattack. This time around things are totally different and this reverse leg is a matchup made in heaven for Juventus. Monaco is one of the best away sides in Europe, but at home they are totally futile. In Ligue 1 they won just 6 of 17 (!!) home games, as they just can`t build a possession game effectively. With a 0-1 deficit to recover, Monaco will have to take initiative at some point and Juventus will be more than happy to punish them on the break. Juve’s recent big games on the road were flawless, with 3-0 wins over Dortmund and over Fiorentina in the Coppa Italia. Not lastly, Monaco will have two massive absences in the form of Kondogbia and especially Toulalan.
Expect a totally different game than the first leg, somewhat similar to the Arsenal tie. My tip will be Juventus to win with a +0 asian handicap (draw no bet). I was hoping for slightly better odds, but the price is fair and I`m happy to go with this bet which I consider to be safe. Prediction: AS Monaco – Juventus 0-2.
Pick: Juventus (+0 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.68 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.44
Event date: 22 April
