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Fiorentina hosts Dynamo Kiev in the reverse leg of this Europa League quarterfinal. Fiorentina was lucky to equalize in the last seconds for a 1-1 draw in Ukraine and will now be a big favorite to advance.
Hosts are not looking very good at the moment … the unconvincing performance in Kiev was followed by a 0-1 home defeat to Verona on Monday … their third straight in Italy, after 0-3 vs Juventus in the Cup and 0-3 vs. Napoli in the league. Seems like the very tough schedule finally got the better of Fiorentina … and the fact that they played Monday will not help them be fresher for this key clash. But, Fiorentina remains a very solid team, they have a very good season overall and play well at home. Also they are healthier than usual ahead of this game … still, the goalscorer from the first leg, Babacar, will not play. Rossi is still out … Pizzaro and Badelj are questionable.
Fiorentina projected lineup:
Neto – Rodriguez, Savic, Alonso, Tomovic – Badelj, Fernandez, Joaquin, Borja Valero – Gomez, Salah
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Despite the fact that the Ukrainians are playing very good football and have a good team this season, Dynamo Kiev will be wary that all of their 4 defeats this season came on the road … three of them in Europa League (Shakhtar, Aalborg, Guingamp, Everton). Visitors are on the back of 3-1 win at Volyn Lutsk in the weekend, a match in which they rested a few players like Jermaine Lens. Makarenko and Dragovic are out of Dynamo Kiev’s lineups today … Miguel Veloso is questionable.
Dynamo Kiev projected lineup:
Shovkovskiy – Silva, Antunes, Dragovic, Khacheridi – Rybalka, Buyalskiy- Sydorchuk, Lens, Yarmolenko – Kravets
Dynamo Kiev can take advantage of Fiorentina’s probblems and tough schedule … I believe the visitors can achieve a historic qualification, even though the last second goal by Fiorentina in Kiev will make things much harder for the Ukrainians. Hosts will dominate possession, but Dynamo Kiev will try to stay safe at the back and hit on the breaks whenever they have the chance. At the very least they can snatch a draw (0-0 would also satisfy Fiorentina). Hosts are looking far from impressive so my tip will be a +0,75 asian handicap on Dynamo. Correct score prediction: Fiorentina – Dynamo Kiev 1-1 (Dynamo Kiev to qualify at penalties).
Pick: Dynamo Kiev (+0,75 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.94 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.52
Event date: 23 April
