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Red hot Napoli will take on Wolfsburg at San Paolo, riding a comfortable 4-1 advantage from the first leg.
Napoli’s win in Germany was truly surprising considering the way Wolfsburg was playing at the moment. The result was obviously way too harsh for what happened on the pitch, but credit to Napoli – they really caught fire in the last few weeks, winning three games in a row with a 10-1 goal difference – including a 3-0 win in Cagliari over the weekend.
Wolfsburg was in marvelous form coming into the first leg, but were humbled by Napoli and seemed to suffer a hangover effect in the league as well – being held to a 1-1 draw by Schalke at VW Arena over the weekend. Dieter Hecking’s side is virtually out of the competition, but one thing about Wolfsburg is that they can win against anybody, anywhere, by any scoreline – as seen in their 4-1 trumping of Bayern Munich or 5-2 aggregate win over Inter.
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Team news & lineups:
Michu, Gargano and Strinic are out for Napoli and Rafa Benitez might choose to rest a couple of starters ahead of the crucial game with Sampdoria on Sunday. Wolfsburg should field the best available linup, but there are questions over the fitness of de Bruyne, Schurrle and Vieirinha. Hunt continues to miss trough injury.
Napoli: Andujar – Maggio, Albiol, Britos, Ghoulam – David Lopez, Inler – Mertens, Gabbidiani, Insigne – Higuain
Wolfsburg: Benaglio – Vieirinha, Naldo, Knoche, Rodriguez – Gustavo, Guilavogui – Caligiuri, Arnold, Schürrle – Dost
Qualification is pretty much decided, but with Napoli prone to take their foot off the gas and with the possibility that Benitez will use some rotation, Wolfsburg can take advantage. The Germans are so much better than that first leg result, which is a bit misleading anyway. Having proved their ability to defeat anybody this season, Wolfsburg might go out in style with a win today. It will be tougher if De Bruyne does not play, but the odds are worth the risk. My tip si Wolfsburg to win with a +0 asian handicap. Prediction: Napoli – Wolfsburg 1-2.
Pick: Wolfsburg (+0 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.46 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 10.22
Event date: 23 April
