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Borna Coric and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez will square off in the quarterfinals at the ATP event in Estoril.
I tipped Coric to lose against Machado in the previous round and I can`t say that it was a wrong bet, considering the odds of 3.25 and how the match unfolded. The two sets were very tight but in the end Coric ran away with the win in the decider (6-1), playing better tennis but also capitalizing on Machado’s breakdown. Coric is without a doubt one of the best players of his generation, but the youngster is not so good as many make him out to be and he`s not playing any kind of special tennis right now. He`s still way to young to win matches against Top 50 players, leaving aside a few exceptions to confirm the rule.
Coric was poor in Bucharest last week, winning over Stakhovsky in a 3rd set tiebreak and losing to an out of form Karlovic, without really standing a chance in the decider. Here in Estoril he got past Chardy (6-2 6-4), benefiting from Jeremy’s poor play and defeated Machado in the second round. He`s playing good tennis, but that`s about it.
Garcia-Lopez is on absolute fire right now, winning the Bucharest title in dominant fashion last week, showing an excellent level of tenis, very close to his absolute best. He doesn`t seem to be tired or fatigued here in Estoril, winning over Carballes Baena 6-2 6-2 and over second seed Kevin Anderson 6-4 3-6 6-1. I was particularly impressed with Garcia-Lopez’s level in the deciding set against Anderson, as it clearly showed the Spaniard to be fresh and 100% motivated, despite his title run in Bucharest last week.
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With the Head 2 Head tied at 0-0, the two players never met before on tour. Coric’s baseline defensive game will be up against a more aggressive Guillermo Garcia Lopez. The surface suits the Spaniard more, as he`s excellent on clay while Coric prefers hard courts.
If there were any questions about the Spaniard’s fitness level or motivation in this tournament, they were clearly answered after his first two matches. Garcia-Lopez is playing at a similar level to last week, he`s painting the lines with offensive groundstrokes and making very few errors. His current level of play is well beyond what Coric is showing right now and I think that the young Croatian could not match it even if he plays the match of his life.
If Garcia-Lopez doesn`t suddenly drop his level, he will surely win this. I can see him steadily breaking down Coric’s shaky defense – the teenager’s defensive game is his main weapon, but it`s not yet good enough to whitstand pressure from in form players like Garcia Lopez. Experience should also make a difference in an ATP quarterfinal and Garcia Lopez has lots of it. Last week in Bucharest we could actually see Coric losing it mentally in the 3rd set against a veteran like Karlovic.
Look for the better, steadier, more in form and more seasoned player to take home the victory. The surface is also an argument for GGL and thus my tip is Garcia-Lopez to win – actually I would not be at all surprised if he manages to book a second title in two weeks. The odds barely came out and they are already dropping big time on a Garcia Lopez win (Pinnacle opened with 1.53 just 12 minutes ago and it already went down to 1.50, 1.47 and now 1.44). Prediction: Borna Coric – Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 4-6 5-7.
Live streaming for Coric vs. Garcia-Lopez available for all players at Bet365.com.
Pick: Garcia-Lopez
Odds: 1.54 @ Unibet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 5.4
Event date: 1 May
