Dinamo – Steaua

The biggest derby in Romanian football will see Dinamo Bucharest take on life time rivals Steaua Bucharest in a match of huge ambitions, but also important standing wise for Steaua – who will almost certainly lose the title if they don’t get a win over their foes. They usually did so in recent years, but that means little coming into today’s match.

Dinamo has been in horrific form since Flavius Stoican was re-appointed as manager, playing the worst football I ever saw them play. The Red Dogs won only one of the last 8 games, over rivals Rapid (losing 4), were humbled by all kinds of relegation candidates (they had a pretty easy schedule) and were kept scoreless 5 times in this run. Scoring goals came easy in the first part of the season, as Dinamo is a team built for an attacking style of football, but was a huge problem for Dinamo under Flavius Stoican – and not only that, but the offensive gameplan was horrible, with absolutely no tactics or flow in attack and being second best in possession in every one of this 8 games – including at home against some of the worst teams in the league. Things improved however with 3 goals in the last two matches, but the putrid defense did not allow them to gain more than 1 point, despite the improvement up front.

Steaua Bucharest managed to blow a 13 point advantage they had at the top of the table in the Winter break, and after losing 0-1 in the last round against title challengers ASA, they are now 2 points behind them in the standings with 5 rounds to go. The visitors won a single game of the last 5 and the atmosphere could hardly be worse, with the coach and the players clearly having different point of views. Selling the backbone of the team in the Winter, the central axis of Szukala, Sanmartean and Keseru clearly hurt them a lot. For the first time in the last 2 and a half years, they look vulnerable in both defense and offense.

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Team news & lineups:

Dinamo will miss regular defensive midfielders Grigore and Boubacar and regular center back Machado. Steaua will have to do without two key man in defense, Papp and Tamas, with Rusescu also being out.

Dinamo: Marc – Barboianu, Nedelcearu, Bunoza, Filip – Elhamed, Cristescu – Rotariu, Niculae, Alexe – Bilinski

Steaua: Arlauskis – Rapa, Varela, Toşca, Guilherme – Prepelita, Bourceanu – Popa, Chipciu, Tanase – Tucudean

Both teams are in putrid form, but the win is mandatory for each side – the derby factor, the fact that Steaua could lose the title without the 3 points and the fact that this is Dinamo’s last chance to redeem themselves before a riot starts in the stands and in the locker room – they are talking about this game ever since they lost the League Cup semifinals 3 months ago.

No team has been impressive (to say the least) in terms of goalscoring recently, but I feel we could see an overish game here. Seven of the last ten games between these two finished with over 2,5 goals, including the 3-0 Steaua win earlier this season and both sides miss some defensive players from their lineups ahead of this clash. It could be a tentative start, but as the game progresses Steaua needs to take some risks and the first goal will totally open things up, as a loss would be a huge disaster for either side. There`s also the absolutely horrible defense of Dinamo that has zero chemistry and low level, slow players – it looks virtually impossible for them to keep a clean sheet against Steaua. And we should not forget that a few weeks ago Dinamo was actually the Liga 1 teams with the most goals being scored in their games.

Stats and common sense might suggest a low scoring game, but looking at the factors above I reckon it is smart to go with the value on goals – and there is good value to take on the under over market. I expect 3-4 goals in this Liga 1 derby. My tip is over 2,5 goals to be scored. Prediction: Dinamo Bucharest – Steaua Bucharest 2-2.

Pick: over 2,5
Odds: 2.25 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 10
Event date: 3 May