Andujar – Sock

Local favorite Pablo Andujar takes on American Jack Sock in the first round of the ATP Masters event in Madrid, the fast clay court tournament on the Tour.

Pablo Andujar didn`t have too much success this year, playing rather poor tennis throughout the season, but when the European clay court season started he really found his game and rhythm. Andujar played a brilliant tournament in Barcelona two weeks ago, defeating the likes of F. Lopez, Fognini or Ferrer (all in straight sets) before losing 4-6 4-6 to Nishikori in the final. He continued the good form with an easy win over Joao Sousa in Munich before retiring against Gerard Melzer in the second round, protecting his fitness for the Masters event in Madrid.

Jack Sock hasn’t played in Europe so far this season, but his last tournament was a winning effort on clay in Houston, beating the likes of Bautista Agut or Kevin Anderson along the way. However, the tournament in Houston is totally different than the ones on clay in Europe – Americans and big servers always have success there. Aside for Houston Jack only played Indian Wells and Miami this season, so he`s not exactly at 100% physically.

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The Head 2 Head is 1-1, both meetings taking part in 2014, both on hard court. Sock won the last match and Andujar’s win came via a Sock retirement at a 2-1 set advantage for Pablo in the US Open. Hard to say any of the two have a matchup advantage, despite owning very contrasting styles – Jack with his big serve and forehand, Andujar with his baseline game.

I love the tournament in Madrid because the particularly fast clay here makes it a little bit different than your usual clay tournament, so there`s often unusual value in the odds – however, this time I will go slightly against that judgement. The fast clay will favor Sock on paper, but reality is that he`s still not good enough on this surface and most importantly he didn’t play a single game on European clay this season. This will be so much different than his win in Houston, and he is taking on a guy that showed breathtaking tennis on the red dirt just a couple of weeks ago.

Can`t see Sock coming in Madrid and defeating an in form, local clay specialist in his first match after a long break. Look for Andujar’s regularity game to force errors from the American and Andujar should be the one coming out on top. Sock might snatch a tiebreak on the fast clay, but he won’t have enough to realistically challenge the consistent Andujar. Prediction: Pablo Andujar – Jack Sock 6-4 6-7 6-4.

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Pick: Andujar
Odds: 2.10 @ William Hill
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8.80
Event date: 5 May