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Red hot Tomas Berdych takes on John Isner in what should be a match played mostly on serve due to the altitude and fast clay at the ATP Madrid masters event.
Isner is playing pretty well lately and even though the red dirt is not his best surface, he can play solid tennis on it – especially in these fast conditions in Madrid that favor his big serve. Big John hasn’t conceded a single break in his first three matches here and actually had to save a single break point in 8 sets. He defeated Mannarino 7-6 6-4, Bellucci 7-6 6-7 6-1 and Kyrgios 6-3 6-7 6-4. Against Nick in the third round, Isner won 87% of first serve points and 72% of his second serve points – amazing stats for a long three setter.
Berdych continues to play brilliant tennis and after winning in straight sets against Gasquet (7-6 7-5) and Tsonga (7-5 6-2) this week (tough draw), he now has 27 wins out of 27 matches against players below the Top 10 in 2015 – absolutely incredible stats and what’s more, he only lost 5 sets in these 27 wins. Tomas is on the back of a great showing in the Monte Carlo final against Djokovic and seeing him here in Madrid as well, he really looks like the favorite to win it all in my eyes. Berdych lost serve once in each match so far.
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Berdych leads the Head 2 HEad 6-2 (3-0 on clay) and he won the last 4 meetings in convincing fashion, not losing a single set. The Head 2 Head looks to clearly indicate a matchup advantage for Tomas – however, this is the first time in almost two years that Isner is playing his best tennis again, so he’s set to pose a bigger threat compared to the previous 4 meetings that took place in 2013 and 2014.
I fully expect Berdych to win this match and it would be a huge, ilogical surprise if he were to fail – nevertheless, Isner’s serve should keep him in the match at least in the first set here in Madrid. John is serving bombs and the fast surface here, faster than many hard courts, will help him deliver those huge first serves on a consistent basis. Look for the American to start strong and confident on serve, as he didn’t face any breaks of serve so far. Berdych obviously should easily keep his own serve, so I expect a tiebreak to happen in the first set, as both guys will look to stay risk free and not fall behind – with Berdych starting to be more aggressive (and Isner more tired) as the match goes on.
A peculiar fact is that in all the 8 Head 2 Head matches between these two there was never a tiebreak in the first set, but the circumstances today suggest a change of history. My tip will be a 7-6 score in the first set for either player. Prediction: John Isner – Tomas Berdych 6-7 4-6.
Live streaming for Isner vs. Berdych available at Bet365.com for all funded accounts.
Pick: First set score: 7-6 / 6-7
Odds: 2.65 @ William Hill
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 11.55
Event date: 8 May
