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Tomas Berdych and Rafael Nadal square off in what will be their 23rd Head 2 Head meeting today in the ATP Madrid semifinals.
After easy wins against Gasquet and Tsonga, Berdych didn’t have it easy in the quarters against Isner – winning a three sets thriller 3-6 7-6 7-6. However, Isner was playing some really good tennis and he was also a little lucky to take his only break point opportunity (which ruined my perfectly legitimate bet on a first set tiebreak) – while Berdych missed 4 of 4 break points and still won 5 more total points despite the scoreline. It was a good match for Berdych to continue his brilliant season so far, but he’ll need to get his act together against top guys as well if he wants the title or at least the final in Madrid.
Berdych won 28 out of 28 matches against players outside of Top 10, but just 2 of 8 against Top 10 players, one being via a Raonic retirement. Still, his only Top 10 win came when he shattered Rafa Nadal in the Australian Open, 6-2 6-0 7-6. And he showed massive improvement against the big boys in the Monte Carlo final two weeks ago, where he took Djokovic to the wire in a 5-7 6-4 3-6 defeat.
Nadal has little problems in dispatching Johnson, Bolelli and Dimitrov in straight sets, never going longer than 6-4 in a set. One of the steadiest performances from Rafa this season, but the opponents were really low quality – Johnson is a non factor on clay, Bolelli is inconsistent and Dimitrov is in horrible shape. This will be the first true test for Rafa this week and he will hope to step it up after having a bad seaspn, particularly disappointing on clay, where his only real win came against Ferrer. Nadal is clearly struggling to find his rhythm after the injury.
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The Head 2 Head is 18-4 for Nadal (6-0 on clay, only one set lost) and it’s well known that Rafa holds Berdych’s number, especially on the red dirt. However, the current version of Nadal has lost some of the weapons that made this matchup so unbalanced – especially the ability to hit long balls and cover the court. Not lastly, the fast surface in Madrid will work in Berdych’s favor.
It’s rarely a good idea to go against such a clear Head 2 Head record and against Nadal on clay, but considering that Berdych destroyed Rafa just months ago and looking at the super fast clay in Madrid, things balance eachother out. Madrid is by far Rafa’s worse clay court tournament because of the particularly fast surface and high altitude, while Tomas absolutely loves this tournament. There’s also the fact that Nadal has not been tested, while Berdych had a nightmare draw which he passed en fanfare. One of the biggest problems for Nadal right now is that he is hitting way too many short balls and this will be a disaster against Berdych, who will be able to step in the court and hit rocket – like forehands. This particular part of the matchup is the main reason for the destruction Berdych handed Rafa in Australian Open.
Berdych has too much going for him to not make this at least close, but he could well win it if Nadal comes up with another poor performance – and he’s more likely to play poorly in Madrid than in any other clay court tournament in the world.
Looking at all the odds and possible scenarios, I reckon the best option is to go with sheer value and tip Berdych to win. My second best bet (the safe option) would be Berdych +1,5 set handicap. Prediction: Tomas Berdych – Rafael Nadal 6-4 2-6 6-4.
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Pick: Berdych
Odds: 3.73 @ SmartLiveSports
Stake: 6
Possible profit: 16.38
Event date: 9 May
