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Big serving Kevin Anderson takes on in form Philipp Kohlschreiber in the second round at the ATP Rome Masters Series event.
Like all big servers, Anderson is obviously a player that prefers fast surfaces, but he has a steady enoough baseline game to allow him to be competitive on clay. Even so, this season has been far from his best on the red dirt. Kevin reached a semifinal in Houston (a special clay tournament that favors big servers) and went on to lose the next two matches against Garcia Lopez and Bolello. Here in Rome he managed to edge Florian Mayer in a three set thriller, but the 7-6 4-6 7-6 win wasn’t too impressive against a player struggling to find his rhythm after a long absence from the tour. Anderson allowed no less than 11 break points for Mayer, so that is a very bad sign.
Kohlschreiber has been on fire lately, reaching the final in Munich (losing to Murray in a 3rd set tiebreak) and again taking a set from Murray in another losing effort at Madrid last week, this time in the second round. He was also competitive against Ferrer in Barcelona and is currently posting a 9-4 win-loss record on the red dirt this year. Here in Rome Kohlscheiber confirmed his good form, leaving only 5 games to Donald Young in the first round.
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The Head 2 Head is 1-0 for Kevin Anderson, a 6-3 6-4 win last year in Valencia, but Kohlschreiber is at a different level right now and that match was on indoor hard. Kohlschriber is known to be one of the good players on tour when it comes to figuring out big servers, posting tied Head 2 Head records with Raonic or Karlovic, a decent 3-4 against Isner and 2-0 over Muller.
Kohlschreiber is playing some of his best tennis right now and looking at Anderson’s poor form, Philipp has all the arguments to win and go to the third round. He’s the better player on clay, he knows how to play big servers and the rather slow clay in Rome gives him another advantage. Anderson conceded 11 break points to Florian Mayer so obviously his serve is not so effective on this surface, Kohlschriber should take advantage and could well manage to even avoid tiebreaks.
The odds for a Kohlschreiber win are good enough to warrant an investment, but I will go the extra mile and pick the -2,5 game line. Kohli should be able to get a couple of breaks here, I don’t see him going in two tiebreaks and it’s also unlikely for Anderson to take a set – even if he does, it will probably be via tiebreak and Kohlschreiber will still have good chances to cover the spread. My tip is Kohlschreiber to win with a 2,5 game handicap. Prediction: Kevin Anderson – Philipp Kohlschreiber 6-7 3-6.
Live streaming for ATP Rome Masters available for all players at Bet365.com.
Pick: Kohlschreiber -2,5
Odds: 1.77 @ Unibet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.16
Event date: 12 May
