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Game 7 of the NBA Western Conference semifinals between Houston Rockets and Los Angeles Clippers. The Clippers are now forced to play this one on the road despite the fact that they finished tied with Houston in the regular season and scored more points in the 4 direct regular season matches, which were split 2-2. But Houston clinched a division title, so that propelled them to be the higher seed, despite clearly being second best in this series, even though the score is tied at 3-3.
LA played the first two matches in Houston without Chris Paul, but still won the first one clearly and barely lost the other. They went on to win the next two games by 25 and 33 points respectively and people were pretty much expecting the series to be over with a 4-1 scoreline in Houston, or at least 4-2 – Clippers were so dominant, they were the better team and were coming after that fantastic Game 7 win over San Antonio.
However, the Rockets somehow managed to push this one to the decider. They won Game 5 at home after a poor performance by the Clippers, who looked to be relaxed, waiting to close it out at home. They were on track to do just that, leading by 17 points with 13 minutes to go in Game 6, but what happened was an epic meltdown. Houston won the 4th quarter 40-15 and stole the win in a match that seemed to be over.
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It`s really peculiar how this series reached Game 7 in Houston. Clippers are the better team and were dominant in most parts of this matchup, but somehow managed to blow it. Houston wasn`t even supposed to be the higher seed, but these are the rules in the NBA, with division champions having priority. Credit to the Rockets for fighting their hearts out in this series, but I don`t think they will be able to go all the way. It really seems that we reached this state by chance and circumstances.
Clippers has two things working against them aside for playing on the road (which I actually don`t think is so important). They might be a bit tired since they don`t have a deep roster and already played a Game 7 in the first round – however, i doubt it will count in a decisive match, when you forget about everything and give it your all. If they are indeed tired, it will probably be visible in the next round, not in this match. Secondly, a historic meltdown like the one in the previous match could well leave some mental scars – but the Clippers showed amazing character in the previous series against the experienced reigning champions Spurs, so they proved their mental strength this seas. And also Doc Rivers, even if I think he`s a bit overrated as a coach, is clearly one of the best motivators in the game, so that will help.
I also believe that the previous series against the Spurs will help Clippers a lot, they know what they have to do and proved they can do it, while Houston has never managed a situation like this successfully in the last years. My tip is an LA Clippers win with a 3 point spread – Clippers covered the spread by huge margins in all their 3 wins this series and 3 points is reasonably low. Prediction: Houston Rockets – LA Clippers: 100-110.
Pick: LA Clippers -3
Odds: 2.12 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 10.08
Event date: 17 May
i will go after you this time with maximum stake cliipers money line. hope you are right this one…cheers
One of the biggest factors for me in this game is the extra day of rest. They are playing on 2 days of rest instead of just 1. This is huge and will give the Clippers the much needed time to refresh their legs and regroup from that epic tank job. Also, CP3 tends to play much better and efficient with that extra days rest in similar fashion to what we’ve seen from Derrick Rose. The injury to Patrick Beverly really crippled Houston. He was their best all around point guard. Terry is very weak on defense and Brigioni isn’t much of an offense threat. Not to mention Harden is weak defensively as well. CP3 really needs to step up here. He’s the teams veteran leader and they don’t just need him to run the team, he needs to score and exploit his match-up.
I’m not sure how the Harden situation will play out. He sat the entire 4th quarter and they came back without him. Does he embrace that and come out like gangbusters today or will his confidence be shaken? The key for him is usually how much he can get to the free throw line and limit his turnovers. He is virtually automatic at the line and its such a huge part of his game. It might depend on how the officials are calling this one.
Several of the role players for Houston were also knocking down their shots in game 6. Jones, Ariza, Brewer, were all knocking down their shots and of course J-Smoove was on fire in the 4th quarter. I’m not sure that will all come together again. Harden will need to step up down the stretch this time if they are to move on. I think Blake will rebound just fine, but CP3 will be the key. The Clippers need him to dominate.
Houston is nicknamed Clutch City from the Hakeem Olajuwon days and they might need to rekindle such magic if they’re going to beat the Clippers for 3 straight games, even with 2 of them on their home court. I just don’t see that happening though. Not with veteran leaders like Doc and CP3, an unstoppable force like Blake, and a Deandre Jordan who will sure be fired up to get back in the trenches after Dwight owned him last game. I’m banking on Deandre to really step up, mostly on defense. The Clippers should be able to outlast Houston much like they did to the Spurs and send the franchise to the conference finals for the first time in team history. If they don’t it will probably fall on the shoulders of CP3. And even Cliff Paul won’t be able to help him hide from the critics. It’s his game to win. He’s their veteran leader and has been one of, if not the best point guards in the league for for the last 5 plus years. It’s his time to shine. Otherwise, they’ll lose unless they get major contributions from Reddick, Rivers, and Crawford.
what do you mean with extra day of rest ?
They played on Thursday night and again today, Sunday afternoon. 2 days in between the games. Typically there is only 1 day of rest and/or travel in between games in the playoffs. Basically they will usually played every other day. Sometimes there is 2 because of the television schedule. I’m guessing the NBA and ABC wanted this game on Sunday afternoon instead of last night.
The extra day will help the Clippers recover a little bit. Not saying it will be the entire difference, but it will surely help matters. The Rockets have momentum and I’m sure they would have preferred to play as soon as possible. Good luck.
Well Harden did improve defensively, but I get your point. I do think CP3 will own that matchup but I don`t think he will be the only difference maker. I`m looking for Griffin and Jordan to get Dwight into foul trouble, that would be huge.
If all Rockets start hitting threes like crazy, including Josh Smith (lol), than there`s nothing we can do, blame their luck and move on. But I also can not see it happening for a second time in a row, it would be just too much.
if clippers don t win i am on a huge loss this weekend, damn it
yep, me too (again). the logical bet is on clippers, smart money are on clippers, no doubt about that. it was always going to be my bet of the weekend. hopefully I will manage to hit a winner for a change.
I will have $300 to win $500 to win on the Clippers because I will have the hit first half of two $150 parlays, one with Goteborg and one with Real Madrid. I may throw another little bit on it pre-game, but because the spread is so tight, unless the Clippers blow them out from the first tip-off, there should will be advantageous opportunities to get a positive ML on the Clippers in-game at a television timeout. Ideally for me, the Rockets will get up by 5 to 10 points in the 1st or 2nd quarter, and I will be able to get a positive Clippers ML hopefully at least around plus 150 or greater. However, the game does not always play out as one assumes. So it may never happen or the ML I get may not look as good if the Rockets widen the margin further and there is another timeout. But the potential is there because of the tight spread. Although its is very tough to be patient during the game and pick the right moment to strike. I know you guys use a multiplier at your Euro books, so I apologize for my American lines.
Good luck again guys. Hopefully we all will. Plus, The Clippers are a better team and will give Golden State a tougher match-up. I think Golden State will win against either, but the Rockets have zero chance against the Warriors and I think it might be a sweep.
For me, I`m going only with the pre match bet here. I`m not particularly fond of live betting aside for trading, but I can see this having some excellent opportunities along the way. I do think it will be close in the first half, I can see Clippers escaping with the win in the 2nd half. As you said, it`s all about the right moment. I`m familiar with american lines, no problem.
Yep, hopefully we`ll all get some nice profit on this one to end the weekend. Cheers and good luck!
This is not Doc Rivers first rodeo, as it will be his 12th playoff game 7 as a coach. He is 6-5. Chris Paul is 3-0 in game 7s as a Clipper. So despite that meltdown, they do have some experience on their side. Its also rare that a team can recover from a 3-1 series deficit as Houston is trying to do. Doc River’s has coached a team that has done so. Kevin McHale has a ton of playoff experience, but that was years ago as a player with the Celtics.
But perhaps the most important thing to watch is how well each team cleans the glass. The team that has won the rebounding margin has won each game in this series. Seems simple, but something to pay attention to as this game transpires.
Down by 7 points at that first timeout, the Clippers were +1.5 and +110 ML. I took them for another little bit. At least they’ve closed most of the gap already. I’ll feel better if Reddick, Barnes, or Crawford starts knocking down a few 3 pointers
Great steal from Pablo. 2nd foul on Dwight. Lots of energy from both the Houston players and fans. Harden is playing well thus far. 2 fouls on Dwight in the 1st quarter is good for our interests. LA needs to capitalize inside.
Down by 7 again at the second TV timeout. The Clippers are +2 and +125 ML. Took them again. Getting close to my final budget for the game.
unbealiveble it seams to be another disaster day
Clippers lackadaisical defense is a little unsettling. Houston is 5 for 9 from the 3pt line. Josh Smith is still en fuego. Clippers are now plus 5 and plus $185 ML. They need to stay close, within about 5 points at the half, or this game might get too far out of hand. At least Doc called everyone out during the last timeout for their lack of hustle
LOL, the Clippers will need a 4th quarter comeback of Rocket game 6 proportions. I missed another opportunity to go above $10k in my account my friend. This would have done it.
At least I hedged my bet by $300 at the beginning of the 4th. I’m only $500 away this time after a huge day yesterday.
The one positive take regarding this game from my perspective is that it sets up a more favorable bettling match-up as far as I’m concerned. The Warriors compare much more favorably to the Rockets and I believe swept the season series this year, all 4 games. Not to mention the Rockets will only get 1 days rest after this game, having to go play at Golden St on Tuesday night. I hope their not out celebrating too much tonight as they’ll have their hands full in a couple days.
This was so frustrating to watch. 17 free throws Clippers, 41 free throws Rockets. Harden shot more free throws than the entire Clippers team, jut crazy. As Oak noticed pre-game, Harden’s ability to get to the line was deicisive. And, again, they rained threes.
Clippers will remember this series for a long, long time. Epic meltdown.
I think Warriors will demolish the Rockets, these last few games are not an indicative of Houston’s real quality. If you shoot 40% from three and 41 free throws per game, you would never ever lose a game. They will cool off and maybe not all referees will be so protective of Harden. But that doesn`t matter much now …
Yes, Harden averaged 27 ppg this season and finished 2nd in the MVP voting, but looking at the numbers further, he went to the line a whopping 824 times. That was 180 more than Westbrook in 2nd, and nearly 300 more than both Boogie Cousins and Lebron in 3rd and 4th respectively. And with Harden shooting nearly 90% he gets about 9 of his 27 ppg from the free throw line each night. That’s a huge percentage of his points that come just from free throws alone. Without it, he’s not nearly as effective. But give him credit for creating the contact, even if much of the contact is actually initiated by Harden himself. Think about how good OKC could be if they had kept him.
The problem for Houston in this series is that GS plays Houston’s game, only much better. They also like to get up and down the floor and shoot a lot of 3s, but they are much more consistent at it, will turn the ball over much less, and play better defense. Sure Houston may get hot for a game and be able to out-shoot the Warriors, but if they are going to have even a puncher’s chance in this series, Dwight Howard is going to have to come up huge. That is the one match-up where they have the advantage and he will need to score and be a monster on the glass against both Bogut and Green. Thompson’s excellent on-ball defense and length will slow Harden down a little, plus James will have to work much harder on the defensive end this series than he did in the last, expending more energy trying to keep up with Curry, Thompson, or Barnes. Maybe Golden St goes cold for a game and Houston can take one, but if this series was any closer than a 4-1 series victory for the Warriors I will surely be surprised. I think they will be at a huge disadvantage right off from the go, playing only 2 nights after expending a lot of energy in a game 7. Perhaps celebrating a little bit into the night as well. Golden St has only lost 3 games at home all year long, including the one that Memphis shocked them with after Curry received the MVP award and all the Warriors had an energy dump from the pre-game ceremony. I don’t see this game going like that. It just becomes a matter of what spread I’m comfortable with and/or how I’m going to construct a couple ML parlays. There is a few appealing tennis and football matches that should work. Although, the Warriors might just cover the 10 points comfortably even though I hate giving up that many in the playoffs where games tend to be a little tighter. And there’s also the in-game wagering opportunities that may or may not present themselves.
Fully agree. I think Warriors will cover this 10 point spread, it`s the perfect opportunity with Houston surely a bit tired. But like you, I`m a bit shy to go with so many points in the playoffs.
I`d say in-play is better, but GS may go up early. I`d say wait for next match, but I doubt GS will have much higher odds. So at a first glance there might not be too much value in this series.
My eyes will be mostly on the under over market and I fancy an under today, I can`t see Houston scoring too much, they are really due a cold night and this really should be it.