Johnson – Isner

All American clash at ATP Nice, with Steve Johnson taking on John Isner in an interesting first round match.

Steve Johnson is a decent player and he is having the best years of his career. He`s the type of solid player from which you almost always know what to expect. However, the American is a non factor on clay, his game is just not cut out for this surface. He has a 16-19 career win-loss record on the red dirt, including challengers and futures – extremely poor statistics for a guy who is floating around Top 50 ATP. This season Johnson won just 2 matches on the red dirt, with Donald Young in Houston and a thriller with Alejandro Gonzalez in Madrid, losing the other 4 matches by large margins. He actually met Isner on clay this season and it was an easy 6-4 6-4 win for Big John in Monte Carlo, a tournament with a very similar (almost identical) playing surface.

Isner has finally found his rhythm in the last few months and he played some great tennis on clay as well. Even if he`s a big server, Big John has always been surprisingly good on clay and he recently stated that this surface “does very positive things to my game, things people don’t know about”. This year on European clay Isner lost only to Nadal (twice) and to Berdych (a deciding set tiebreak). He defeated the likes of Kyrgios, Troicki or Leonardo Mayer.

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The Head 2 Head is 2-1 for Isner (1-0 on clay), with Big John winning the last two meetings, both in minimum sets. The most relevant of course was the match in Monte Carlo last month – not only because it was clay, but because it was a virtually identical slow clay to the one in Nice and of course the playing conditions, weather and so on were also basically the same, since the two cities are virtually next to eachother.

Isner is really playing well these days and on this surface he should make light work of Johnson. It seems unlikely for Johnson to break Big John, so Isner should at least reach tiebreaks comfortably, but obviously he has the game to put big pressure on the return on this surface. I can see him finishing this one in two easy sets, one break per set. Looking at the previous meeting in Monte Carlo I just can’t see how Johnson could even challenge for a set today, even if obviously no match is similar to the other.

There`s also the fact that Steve is a predictable player, he usually brings the same level of play, not too many surprises. Can’t see what he could do today, so if Isner plays his normal game, he should win in straight sets. My tip is Isner to win 2-0. Prediction: Steve Johnson – John Isner 3-6 5-7.

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Pick: Isner 2:0
Odds: 1.98 @ Unibet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.84
Event date: 19 May