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ASA Targu Mures and Otelul Galati square off in the last round of the Romanian Liga 1, with the two teams in totally different situations. Targu Mures is still in the title fight and needs a win combined with Steaua losing or drawing in order to win the Romanian Liga 1. Otelul is on the second to last place, already relegated.
Targu Mures isn`t a team with too much individual quality, but they benefited from a Steaua collapse, favorable refereeing and an overall good performance in 2015 to get into the title fight. It was circumstantial, as most Romanian teams are struggling with finances, so Targu Mures (a newly promoted team financed with public money) saw an opportunity and grabbed it.
However, after ASA reached the first place a month ago, they really got tight and proved their limits. In 4 matches they won two (one very lucky) and lost two. Last round they lost 3-1 against Astra and this time Steaua won, so ASA dropped to the second place. Now the hosts are in a very difficult situation, as they have a ton of suspensions after nerves broke down in the Astra game and Steaua is expected to win at Iasi anyway, so winning the title would be a huge upset in these circumstances.
Otelul has nothing left to fight for since a long time, they were last in the table for most of 2015. However, this did not stop them to put on some impressive performances lately. The visitors won 4 of their last 7 games, losing just once. They are on the back of two consecutive wins, albeit both were at home against fellow relegated teams. Otelul is playing some nice football right now, playing freely and scoring a lot of goals – 13 goals in the last 7 games, very impressive for a team placed second to last. They will enter this game with confidence as they are in good form and have nothing to lose – additionally, they already proved their capabilities on the road against top teams, beating league leaders Steaua 2-1 in Bucharest just one month ago.
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Team news & lineups:
ASA Targu Mures will be decimated today, no less than 4 key players being suspended after the game in the previous round. Additionally, reserve keeper Viciu is also out. Big problem as ASA doesn`t have any depth in the squad. Otelul also has a long list of unavailable players, but most of them are long term. Fresh squad problems are represented by the suspensions of Hamroun and Milea.
ASA Targu Mures: Stancioiu – Hanca, Constantin, Bejan, Ilie – Muresan, N’Doye – Zicu, Voiculeţ, Bumba – Axente
Otelul Galati: Abraham – Solomou, Miron, Sissoko, Popescu – Helder, Cucu, Dica – Cernat – Iorga, Tudorie
Otelul is a very good counter attacking team with a top class creative midfielder in Florin Cernat, the best in the league. This worked great for them against Steaua and it might be much easier against Targu Mures. The hosts are in a state of tension right now, they got extremely tight since reaching the first place and will be even tighter with the league on the line today. The hosts will have to field a decimated lineup, they are not in good form and if Steaua takes the lead at Iasi (a probable scenario), I expect Targu Mures to collapse. On top of it all, Targu Mures is a team with a style of grinding out wins due to tactical consistency, they very rarely win by more than 1 – 9 of their last 10 wins came by a single goal, the only exception being a match in which the opponents had a player sent off in the 15th minute.
The odds are absolutely crazy here, 1.15 for a home win is out of this world. Targu Mures is a team that should never have odds of less than 1.40 – 1.50 in a tight, balanced championship like the Romanian Liga 1. While it is true that they are the more motivated team, the circumstances are actually not great for the hosts and Otelul seems to be the team in better form. The fact that Otelul are a great counterattacking team with their top players being in offense will be a good matchup for the visitors against a desperate ASA side. Even if somehow things go right for Targu Mures in this round, it`s very unlikely that they will win by a big margin, they don`t need anything more than a 1 goal win and they are built for winning 1-0.
My tip is Otelul +1,75 asian handicap. Prediction: ASA Targu Mures – Otelul Galati 1-2.
Pick: Otelul Galati (+1,75 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.17 @ Sbobet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 10.53
Event date: 28 May
incredible you hit the correct score. I think 1-2 had odds 50 or something
Yep. Always nice to smell an upset and have the game go exactly as you expect – it gives you a special sense of satisfaction aside from the profit. However, my other tips were rubbish today unfortunately.