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Evenly matched encounter in the second round at Roland Garros between Viktor Troicki and Simone Bolelli.
Troicki was pretty good in his first round win against Struff, leaving him just 4 games in 3 sets aside for a tiebreak loss in the 3rd set – 6-2 6-1 6-7 6-1. The Serbian backed up his good run in Rome, where he defeated Feliciano Lopez and Tomic before a respectable loss against Kei Nishikori. Troicki showed some good tennis all season, but he has been inconsistent at times, losing some matches that he maybe should have won. He is yet to translate his excellent form from hard courts to clay courts, despite being a solid clay court player.
Bolelli defeated Steve Darcis in three solid sets, 6-3 6-4 6-3 in the first round. The Italian hasn`t passed the third round in any tournament this year but he has been surprisingly consistent, winning at least a match almost every week in 2015. His clay court campaign had been decent and he entered Roland Garros on the back of a 6-7 6-7 loss to Thiem in the first round at Nice, a good performance against a red hot player.
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Troicki leads the Head 2 Head 3-2 but Bolelli’s wins came in 2007 and 2009, while Troicki actually won two matches against Bolelli this year, in 2015 – both needing a deciding set. None of the meetings were on clay, a surface that suits both players just fine.
These two players are at a very similar level right now and it`s hard to separate them. However, I do believe that Troicki should have a small edge – firstly due to the Head 2 Head record but also due to his superior quality and Grand Slam experience. I expect a tight match with the Serbian emerging as a winner – he’ll win if he puts on the same level he had against Struff, but avoiding a meltdown like the one he had in the third set against the German.
All in all my tip on this clash is Viktor Troicki to win, despite the odds dropping right now on a Bolelli win. The over also looks pretty tasty with the game line currently set at 37,5 games – I wouldn not be too surprised if this ends up going to 5 sets, but both players can be inconsistent and I want to avoid losing high stakes if one of them decides not to show up. I`ll invest 7 units on this bet, still pretty high stakes, but the odds and the return of investment are worth the risk. Prediction: Viktor Troicki – Simone Bolelli 6-4 3-6 4-6 6-2 6-4.
Bet365.com provides the best odds on the outright winner market at Roland Garros.
Pick: Troicki
Odds: 2.33 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 9.31
Event date: 28 May
