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Massive clash in the Swedish Allsvenskan, as Goteborg takes on Elfsborg in a match with implications at the top of the table and a regional derby as well.
Goteborg has been the team to beat so far in Sweden and they lead the league after 11 rounds. Even if they were the 2nd favorites at the start of the season, the leading position is somewhat surprising, as Malmo was expected to dominate. Goteborg played some great football, especially on the defensive end (conceded just 5 goals) and benefited from some Malmo hiccups to be in this position – but with the reigning champions recovering to win their last two matches, Goteborg needs the three points today. The hosts are on the back of a 0-0 draw against Djurgarden and has only 2 points left ahead of Malmo (but also a game in hand).
Elfsborg is on the 3rd place, 2 points behind Goteborg and they can actually go first if they win this one. Unlike Goteborg or Malmo, Elfsborg didn`t bring in star players in the off season, but they have great chemistry and have been impressive in the scoring department, banging in 21 goals in 11 matches (also allowing 12). The visitors lost a single game this season and in the last 6 outings they have 4 wins and 2 draws. Last round it was a disappointing 2-2 home draw over Orebro.
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Team news: Goteborg has been healthy all season and again they can field virtually their best lineup. Star defender Thomas Rogne should be back in the starting lineup after missing the game against Djurgarden with a stomach bug. Elfsborg should line up in a similar way to how they did last round.
I fancy Goteborg to win this, but looking at how well Elfsborg played this season, a draw wouldn`t be a shock. I prefer betting on the under / over market here, specifically on under 2,5 goals to be scored. Elfsborg has indeed been an offensive force this season, but the fact is they have been much more cautious when playing away, with just 12 goals scored + allowed in 5 matches on the road. Goteborg is by far the best defensive team in Sweden and at home they will be able to impose their own tempo and rhythm. With Elfsborg not likely to risk too much away from home and with the two teams being evenly matched, this should be a tight, rugged underish football game which no one will want to lose.
All in all, my tip is under 2,5 goals to be scored. Three of the last four direct meetings finished 0-0 (including the last two). Prediction: Goteborg – Elfsborg 1-0.
Pick: under 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.87 @ Unibet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 6.09
Event date: 4 June
