Williams – Safarova

Serena Williams Lucie Safarova betting tipsSerena Williams and Lucie Safarova square off in the women’s final at Roland Garros, with question marks over Serena’s fitness ahead of the final clash.

The American has been far from her best during this tournament, but this only comes to show how good she is, reaching a Grand Slam final despite playing well below her optimal level of tennis. On the other hand she had a very easy draw and one can argue that a better opponent would have beaten this version of Serena. Her toughest adversary was probably Azarenka and Serena won only 2 of her 6 matches in straight sets. She was very close to losing the semifinal against Baczinsky, but eventually came back to claim the victory.

Serena said that she felt since the 3rd round, but particularly bad during her semifinal clash – and that she doesn`t know if she will be able to recover. Obviously this can be a tactic, but looking at her level in Paris, it looks very likely that she`s being honest and has some sort of injury / ilness. The American stated that she feels drained, cold and can`t move.

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Safarova (who will also play the doubles final tommorow) was nothing short of brilliant these two weeks, meeting all her matches in straight sets despite having a very difficult schedule – including matches against Sharapova, a red hot Muguruza or Ivanovic. Lucie looked to have a lot of pressure at the start of the semifinal with Ivanovic and fell down 2-5 in the first set, but eventually the stress went away and she regained his best level of tennis – not looking back since that 2-5 deficit. Again, excellent shotmaking from the Czech, great serving and good defense as well.

Serena Williams leads the Head 2 Head 8-0 (2-0 on clay) and it seems Safarova is really struggling against her. However, I wouldn`t say Serena has a favorable matchup – she is always vulnerable against big hitters like Lucie and the Head 2 Head is more due to sheer quality difference. With Safarova playing at an unprecedented level, this Head 2 Head could be less relevant than it seems.

Obviously Serena Williams is the favorite here, but she has a lot going against her – she`s not feeling well, she`s not playing well and meets a player in the form of her life. Additionally there`s the fact that despite the Head 2 Head, Serena always struggled against big hitters. Safarova has plenty of reasons to hope for an upset and if she doesn`t get tight, like she did at the start of the match with Ivanovic, I actually think she will win this – especially is Serena will not be fit and it seems that she won’t.

Obviously this is a bit of a long shot, Serena is a different animal in a Grand Slam final and experience will be huge – but that counts for nothing if she has an injury. There`s potential for a solid return of investment here at huge odds so I will invest pretty high stakes on Lucie. My tip is Safarova to win. I`m staying away from any kind of game or set handicaps because if Serena manages to find her best game, it could end quickly and it`s not worth to risk that for odds 1.80 or 1.90. For odds 3.50 however, that`s obviously a massively different thing. Not to mention there could be very solid options for in play trading if Serena starts the match poorly. Prediction: Serena Williams – Lucie Safarova 5-7 6-1 4-6.

Bet365.com provides the best odds on the outright winner market at Roland Garros.

Pick: Safarova
Odds: 3.50 @ William Hill
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 20
Event date: 6 June

About Rostick

Born in '88. Running betting tips websites since 2007. Launched Betdistrict in 2013. Worked as a bookie for a year to spy on the other side. Rugby Union and NBA expert. Editor info & statistics.

2 comments

  1. that one of her goals was tying Billie’s record and now that she has done the on-court stuff it is time to focus on the off-court stuff. In rlaiteon to Serena’s maturity, I have to say that since Foot Fault Gate (sorry Craig and others), Serena has shown a level of maturity that I have really not seen in a long time. Her press conferences which used to be filled with sarcastic remarks was thoughtful, concise and while there was the occassion put down of a reporter (anger management anyone), she held herself together this fortnight. I saw a quote where she said that there was someone in the crowd behind her when she was serving at 3-2 in the third set and the person shouted out that Justine should break her serve because she is not that good, or words to that effect. Serena is quoted as saying that she thought that was quite rude and decided that she was not going to lose another game. I am sure that her family is very proud of her. Another thing that I have noticed from the write ups from her victory is the grudging respect being meted out to her by almost every journalist that I have read. Good to see that she is finally getting the positive press she deserves and that it was caused by her tennis and not by anything else. Good stuff.

  2. OMG i get the same way too hahaha we can make some crazy recipes huh. Yea my husband tells me that too, but i some times forget to write them down too.

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