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Sam Groth takes on Feliciano Lopez in the second round at Stuttgart, a rare meeting between two grass court experts.
Big server Sam Groth is yet to lose this season on the green, winning the Manchester challenger and backing it up with a 3 sets win over Stakhovsky in the first round here. However, the level of opposition will be totally different this time around and after watching Groth in the first round, it might be a level too high for him right now. Big Sam was not impressive against an out of form Stakhovsky, with the Ukrainean putting big pressure a number of times on the Groth serve – his only top class weapon. And that was without Stak being anywhere near his best.
After a brilliant season last year and a very good run on hard courts in 2015, Lopez had a poor clay court season, never winning consecutive matches in any of the tournaments he played. But on the other hand the red dirt was always Feliciano’s worst surface and he generally lost to good clay courters like Andujar, Troicki, in form Gabashvili or Leonardo Mayer, putting up a fight. Now Lopez will return to his beloved grass and this will be his first match in Stuttgart, as he had a bye in the first round.
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Lopez is one of the few grass court experts left in the game, he poses a big serve and top notch volleying skills, making him a beast on this surface. Last season Feliciano posted a 12-2 win-loss record on the green, winning Eastbourne, reaching the final at Queens and the Round 16 at Wimbledon. He had a run of 5 matches without losing serve at one point and overall barely got broken a few times in his 14 matches on grass.
The Head 2 Head is 1-0 for Lopez and actually the only meeting was this year, an easy 6-3 6-3 in Houston, but on clay – a faster clay though. Both players have big serves and like to serve and volley, though Lopez does it much often and has much more weapons than the Australian – who’s mostly relying on his huge serve and hail mary`es.
It`s hard to expect Lopez to replicate his magnificent form on grass from last season, at least not straight away, but it`s realistic to expect another excellent season from him on the green. He was in great form prior to the clay season and should return to that level pretty soon. Groth should pose zero problems to Feliciano’s serve and I don`t expect him to break the Spaniard even once, while Lopez should have his chances on the huge but inconsistent Groth serve, without even needing his best level.
I can’e envision Groth keeping serve for the whole match and there’s a very good chance he won’t break Lopez, so the 2,5 game handicap line should be covered by Lopez here. I don`t even think we`ll see a tiebreak. My tip is Feliciano Lopez to win with a -2,5 game handicap. Prediction: Sam Groth – Feliciano Lopez 5-7 4-6.
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Pick: Lopez -2,5 game hc.
Odds: 1.88 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.04
Event date: 10 June
