Sweden – Montenegro

Sweden takes on Montenegro in the Group F of the Euro 2016 qualifiers, attempting to take advantage of the direct meeting between Russia and Austria earlier in the day.

Sweden is still undefeated so far in the qualifying tournament, but with 2 wins and 3 draws they are on the second place, 4 points behind Austria and holding a tiny 1 point advantage over Russia. Sweden has been in decent form so far in 2015, posting a 3-2-1 record in 6 games and beating Moldova 2-0 on the road in the only official match. Back last year Sweden was very close to secure the three points in Montenegro, but lost their early lead via an 80th minute penalty scored by Jovetic and ended up drawing 1-1.

Montenegro could have been in a very good position right now, but they lost the last qualifying match by default to Russia. Montenegro was looking good to secure at least a draw in that one before some terraces collapsed in the stands, so now today`s visitors are on the fourth place, 3 points behind Russia and 4 behind Sweden. Needless to say that if Montenegro doesn`t get at least a draw here, hopes for qualification are virtually over.

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Team news & lineups:

The biggest news for Sweden is that Ibrahimovic will be in the starting lineup, with the PSG man carrying his side in these qualifiers so far. Montenegro on the other hand will face a big handicap by not having its main man Jovetic.

Sweden: Isaksson – Bengtsson, Olsson, Milosevic, Wendt – Wernbloom, Ekdal, Kallstrom, Zengin – Ibrahimovic, Berg

Montenegro: Bozovic – Savic, Simic, Basa, Tomasevic – Nikolic, Vukcevic – Vešovic, Bakic, Beqiraj – Mugosa

Montenegro is a decent side, but they are much more dangerous at home than on the road – which is a valid statement for Sweden as well. Home court advantage, coupled with Ibrahimovic playing and Jovetic not playing, should allow Sweden to avoid any upsets here. It might be close, but one way or the other Sweden doesn`t look likely to blow this opportunity.

My tip will be a straight Sweden win, I won`t bet handicaps here because Montenegro has fighting spirit and Sweden is not exactly known for covering big spreads. The odds are just good enough to bet the simple Sweden win. Prediction: Sweden – Montenegro 2-1.

Pick: Sweden
Odds: 1.50 @ SmartLiveSports
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 4
Event date: 14 June