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Gilles Muller takes on Mikhail Youzhny in the first round at the ATP 500 event in Queens, London.
The big serving Muller has been solid all season and he is on the back of a semifinal showing in Hertogenbosch last week – not a surprising result considering that grass is arguably Muller’s best surface. Gilles defeated Ilhan, Pospisil and Copil before losing to David Goffin in the semis. Muller was broken just twice during the whole tournament and he faced a total of just 4 break points in 4 matches – three of those being in the semifinal matchup against Goffin.
Youzhny is having an absolute nightmare of a season and it will be interesting to see if the Russian will ever come back from this. Youzhny is in real bad form, he passed the second round of a tournament only once, in Zagreb and lost to players like Hanescu, Basilashvili, Dzumhur, Marchenko or a non-ranked Florian Mayer. He`s unable to stay consistent in rallies and most of his losses were one sided, especially against Top 50 players, against whom he barely won a few games. Mikhail is on the back of a 0-2 loss to Marchenko in Hertogenbosh.
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The Head 2 Head is 2-1 for Youzhny, but none of the meetings were on clay and the last one was back in 2012 – a 3-2 Muller win at the US Open. Obviously the Head 2 Head holds little relevance here. Both guys are good on grass, but Gilles Muller is a little bit more competent on the green surface with his big serve and good volleys.
Muller should win this one with games to spare. With his big serve and Youzhny’s poor returning skills, Muller should stay safe on his service game and could well avoid being broken. Youzhny on the other hand is a mess, he has moments of total blackout and it looks next to impossible for him to keep serve for the whole match. Muller is in great form and will punish the Russian every time he fails to put the first ball in. But Gilles might not even need that, as Youzhny will likely kill himself with errors and double faults in one or two service games.
If Youzhny doesn’t magically become Youzhny of old, Muller will own this. Look for him to keep serve and record 1-2 breaks of serve, thus covering the small game handicap. My tip is Muller to win with a 2,5 game handicap. Prediction: Gilles Muller – Mikhail Youzhny 7-5 6-3.
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Pick: Muller -2,5 game handicap
Odds: 1.85 @ Betsson
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.8
Event date: 16 June
