Federer – Gulbis

Roger Federer and Ernests Gulbis will square off in the second round at the ATP 500 event in Halle.

Federer had a huge scare in the first round, needing a third set tiebreak to edge a feisty Kohlschreiber. It was an up and down performance from Federer – mostly down, despite Kohlschreiber playing an inspired game. Federer was down 5-3 in the final tiebreak and it was looking like a shock defeat, but he pulled off the comeback with a number of impressive points – raising his level when it mattered the most. Roger also served well, so that is a good indication for him going further.

Gulbis finally managed to win a game here in the Halle first round, defeating Stakhovsky 2-0 and improving on his dreadful 3-13 win-loss record at ATP events this year. It was a more steady performance from the Latvian, but Stakhovsky was out of form himself and didn`t play his best match. Gulbis failed to capitalize on his good results last year, particularly the French Open semifinal. Seems like good old Ernests is back to his old, not so good habits of not training, smoking and drinking.

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The Head 2 Head is tied at 2-2, with Gulbis winning the previous meeting last year in the Roland Garros Round 16 – an epic five setter. He always gave Federer problems, never losing in straight sets against the Swiss. However, the pair never met on grass, where Roger also has the edge. It will also be just the second meeting in the last 5 years.

The Head 2 Head favors Gulbis here, but 3 of the meetings were before 2011, when we know he was much better. The other one was in Roland Garros last year, the best tournament of Ernests’ career. I can see Federer winning this rather easily and handing Gulbis the first heavy beating in their Head 2 Head meetings.

Roger is in fine form, he seems confident and after his “classic” scare in the first round, It`s virtually guaranteed that he will be much improved and more focused as the tournament goes on, starting with today’s match. Gulbis is far away from his best level of tennis and I can`t see him being able to consistently stay in rallies, or consistently serve well. My tip is Federer to win and cover the 4 games handicap. Prediction: Roger Federer – Ernests Gulbis 6-3 6-4.

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Pick: Federer -4 game hc.
Odds: 1.72 @ Betsson
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.76
Event date: 17 June