Querrey – Simon

Sam Querrey and Gilles Simon will square off in a quarterfinal set to feature a clash of styles, at the ATP event in Nottingham.

Querrey had a poor season so far and he started the grass court swing with a 1st round loss against Dimitrov in Queens. This QF is actually his 3rd best result of the season – he also reached the final in Houston and the SF’s in Memphis, but lost in the 1st or 2nd round in all of his other tournaments.

Querrey defeated Giraldo (7-6 6-4) and Cuevas (7-6 7-6) to get to this stage. I watched Big Sam against Cuevas yesterday and he was decent, but far from impressive, struggling with a Cuevas that was looking very uncomfortable on the surface, aside from a surprisingly good serve. Querrey did seem the better player for the whole match, but he was lucky that Cuevas double faulted twice in a row when he was serving for the first set at 7-6 in the tiebreak. It was a mediocre performance from the American against a guy that really doesn`t know how to play on grass. Sam was generally able to play 1-2-3 good offensive shots, but could not quite keep the rhythm and made a lot of unforced errors. This won’t be good enough against Simon.

Gilles is not a grass court player, that is for sure, but his smart aggressive style along with his quality are sufficient to make him very dangerous when he`s in form. The frenchman (who had a solid 2015 so far) has been surprisingly good on the surface this season, reaching the semifinals in Queens where he defeated the likes of Goffin or Raonic and now the quarters in Nottingham. He struggled against Granollers in his first match, but upped the tempo in the next round, ruining Joao Souza 6-4 6-1.

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The Head 2 Head is 4-1 for Simon, with the last meeting being in 2013. The Frenchman won the last 3 meetings and seems that his smart agressive baseline game can frustrate Querrey’s big serving, offensive style. However, the pair never met on grass.

If Gilles Simon carries his good form into this match (and I can`t see why he wouldn’t), he should make light work of Querrey. Big Sam is not in his best form and showed a ton of weaknesses against Cuevas, who is nothing more than a poor man’s Simon on this surface. Gilles’ consistency from the baseline should be too much for Querrey’s erratic game.

Look for the Frenchman to hit back balls, force Querrey to hit another shot and Sam will eventually miss. Simon was also very solid on serve against Sousa (wasn’t broken) and he has the ability to switch from defense to offense, which will work very well against the relatively slow footed American.

Querrey’s serve will keep him in the match, but he is not the most consistent guy on serve and eventually Simon, who is a great returner, will have his chances. Gilles played two much better servers than Querrey last week (Raonic, Anderson), so he will be prepared for Big Sam’s style – and the Head 2 Head also suggests that.

My tip is a simple Simon win. I really wasn`t planning to make big bets today, but the odds are just great. The normal price would probably be around 1.55 (even than I would go with Simon) and the odds are going in that direction. Prediction: Sam Querrey – Gilles Simon 5-7 4-6.

ATP Nottingham Querrey – Simon live streaming available for players at Bet365.

Pick: Simon
Odds: 1.73 @ Betsson
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 7.3
Event date: 25 June