Brazil – Paraguay

Brazil will face Paraguay in the last quarterfinal of Copa America. People who know me know that i like to bet on underdogs, that’s where value usually is. This game makes no exception. After all we have seen here, from Brazil, it’s surprising to see odds this short on the Seleccao vs an undefeated Paraguay. Oh, and did i mention Neymar will be out.

To be honest, this seems like money on the floor to me, like we say in my country. Let’s look at the results of the Brazilians: last minute goal and win vs Peru, loss vs Colombia, in a game where they had their chances, but still, they played badly. And then the 2-1 win over Venezuela, maybe one of the poorest 2 teams in this Copa America in Chile.

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About Brazil i have written a lot. They played very well after Dunga came, and the 0-1 loss vs Colombia is the first since he came at the helm of the Seleccao. But it must be said that Brazil has shown some weaknesses. David Luiz in the center of defense is not a reliable option, and neither Dante or Miranda have convinced me. The team has looked overly reliant on Neymar, and it’s easy to understand why. The other strikers are Fred, Douglas Costa and Luiz Adriano, the first is too old and the latter 2 played in the powerful league of Ukraine (insert irony here).

Now let’s look at Paraguay. They have a mix of hard working players, their midfielders are 90% focused on defending, and they have 3-4 very nice creative players, Ortigoza, Derlis Gonzalez, Barrios and Roque Santa Cruz. The last 2 are old, but gold .. and the first 2 i mentioned are really creative, i was surprised by them. The Paraguay coach is very good, he has won trophies before and has said that this is the greatest challenge of his career so far (remember Paraguay finished last in the WC qualifiers, it’s really hard to finish below Bolivia and Venezuela, but Paraguay did it).

I think the odds do not consider all these above mentioned factors, and i will take a bet on Paraguay +0.75 asian handicap. Great price for this pick.

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Pick: Paraguay (+0,75 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.01 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8.08
Event date: 27 June