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Denis Istomin and Sam Querrey will square off in a surprising final at the ATP event in Nottingham.
Istomin played some great tennis this week, confirming that he is a solid player on grass. However, one could argue that Istomin’s road to the final was a bit lucky – Almagro, Monaco, Stakhovsky, Mayer (who probably should have won their meeting) and a Baghdatis who retired after just 3 games in the semifinals. Also, Istomin’s serve seemed to get worse as the tournament progressed, as he faced 4 break points against Stakhovsky, 7 against Mayer and was broken by Baghdatis in the only service game he played against the Cypriot.
Querrey wasn`t looking to good coming into this tournament, as his form has been shaky to say the least – especially in the last couple of months. He didn’t start particularly great, playing close matches with two clay courters like Giraldo and Cuevas. However, as the tournament progressed, Big Sam started to play better and better, defeating the likes of Simon and Dolgopolov, who were both in fine form.
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Querrey leads the Head 2 Head 4-2 (1-1 on grass) and won the last two meetings, including the previous match on the green, back in 2012. Both guys like grass and both are big servers, with a plus to Querrey.
The simple fact is that Querrey played better tennis than Istomin this week and he has been much more consistent – particularly on serve. A solid case can be made about the fact that Istomin doesn’t really deserve to be in this final, he was lucky to edge Leonardo Mayer, saving 7 out of 7 break points and Baghdatis was the favorite to defeat him in the semifinals, starting better than Denis before retiring after just three games.
I was initially thinking about an over, but the line is high and Istomin’s serve has been shaky in the last three matches, surely not to be trusted. Querrey should continue his fine form and get the win, also extenting the Head 2 Head advantage – he really was the best player this week in Nottingham and deserves it. I can see Istomin snatching a tiebreak if he gets his act together and Querrey gets a bit tight (which is the biggest danger here), but that`s about it. My tip is a Querrey win. Prediction: Denis Istomin – Sam Querrey 4-6 7-6 4-6.
ATP Nottingham Istomin – Querrey live streaming available for players at Bet365.
Pick: Querrey
Odds: 1.63 @ Betsson
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.04
Event date: 27 June
