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The first qualifying leg of the UEFA Champions League sees B36 Torshavn take on Welsh champions TNS.
The Faroe Islands champions are right in the middle of the season at the moment, leading the league by 2 points after 17 rounds and being undefeated in the last 10 match days. B36 is the best side in Faroe, but not by much – there are a couple of teams challenging them and last year they won the league by a single point. The problem for Torshavin is that, despite football in the country improving at national team level, they have been completely futile in European competitions.
B36 did not win a tie since 2006 and their last three campaigns were dreadful, losing to Rustavi (2 defeats) and Linfield twice (1 defeat, 3 draws). Last year Torshavn managed to lose at home against Linfield and only got a draw on the road. Another problem for the hosts is defense, at least recently. They still have the top defense in the country, but they allowed at least a goal in 10 of the last 11 league matches – not exactly good stats to have in Faroe.
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TNS winning the Welsh league last season came as little surprise, as the team dominates the domestic competition with authority since many years now. However, it can be argued that this is the best TNS team in a long time. The visitors lost a single game last season, blew out most opponents and won all three Welsh competitions in style. They signed some interesting players this year, including Jamie Reed, a regular for sides like York City, Chester or Cambridge United in the last few years.
The visitors are the better team here, and they were competitive in Europe in the last three years against good sides like Legia Warsaw, Helsinborgs or Slovan Bratislava. Adding this to Torshavn’s futility in Europe and the excellent season TNS had last year, they seem to be a lock to win this tie. However, the first leg might be tricky.
Torshavn plays at home and they have the advantage of playing competitive football right now, as opposed to The New Saints. I expect some good defense and physical effort from the hosts, with TNS keeping possession, building attacks and trying to find openings – which they may or may not do. B36 has a poor defensive record recently but I expect it to step up in the Champions League and play at a superior level of intensity. They can do that, as they showed good defense at the start of the league and in Europe over the last few years. In these circumstances, I don’t expect many goals here, despite the stats maybe suggesting otherwise.
My tip on this one is under 2,5 goals. A TNS win could also be a decent bet, but I wouldn’t put money on it. Prediction: B36 Torshavn – The New Saints 0-1.
Pick: under 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.89 @ SmartLiveSports
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 6.23
Event date: 1 July
