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Fernando Verdasco takes on young gun Dominic Thiem in the Wimbledon second round.
Verdasco struggled way more than he should have in the first round, needing a 13-11 result in the deciding set in order to surpass Klizan, a guy that has little business playing on grass. The dramatic win came as a confirmation of Verdasco’s poor form. The Spaniard has two wins on grass this season, but both were against clay courters (Gimeno Traver, Bautista Agut) and both needed a deciding set. Fernando lost to Haase and Murray in straight sets.
Unlike Verdasco, who likes (or at least used to like) playing on grass, Thiem is not really familiar with the surface and had zero success on it during his career. However, the young Austrian is getting better each week and he’s improving his grass court game as well. Thiem got a good win in the first round against Dudi Sela, 3-1 and will hope to play even better today. He will need it, because his level is still mediocre on the green.
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This will be the first meeting between the two players. Both like to roam the baseline, but Verdasco is the more offensive player, while Thiem relies more on good movement, defense and a smart aggressive gameplan.
While Thiem is still not a solid grass court player, fact is that he became a much better player than Verdasco overall in the last few years and especially this year. I reckon Thiem has enough match practice on the surface in order to play good tennis today and that could be enough to take care of a shaky Verdasco. The Spaniard needed a deciding set in all his three wins on grass in 2015, all against clay courters arguably less dangerous than Thiem.
With the above in mind, my first instinct was to tip Dominic to cover a 1,5 set handicap. However, considering Verdasco’s first round thriller and Dominic’s youth, the Austrian should have the first chance if it goes to 5 sets – so I reckon it’s worth taking the risk in betting on him to win at high odds, rather than a +1,5 set handicap at evens. I rate this as a 50-50 match with a small edge for Verdasco, so picking Thiem at these odds surely makes sense.
My tip is a Thiem win. Prediction: Fernando Verdasco – Dominic Thiem 6-3 4-6 4-6 6-3 5-7.
Wimbledon live streaming from most courts available for players at Bet365.com.
Pick: Thiem
Odds: 2.73 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 6
Possible profit: 10.38
Event date: 1 July
Mate.you obiously have a problem betting on some players or teams.a fix may a say. Like that edmunds or this thiem now. .not to say hanescu in the past.it s clearly that your a smart guy thats why i am so confuse and i don t understand this fix o ve your s
Well, I have to partially disagree.
I can give you the fact that I bet a lot of times on Hanescu and Federer. I consider myself objective but you could have a point. But I truly feel that in the last year or so I really worked on it and rarely backed them, even went against them.
However, I went trough the history and this is exactly my second bet on Thiem in the last 10 months and the 4th bet involving him in the same timeframe (the other two were overs). So you are obviously wrong here, probably influenced by the fact that both bets on Thiem came in the space of one week.
With Edmund, I tried to ride his amazing Roland Garros form. I thought I saw something really special in him before most people.
Also, the logic behind betting on the same players very often is that you watched them play a lot. You can’t watch everybody, so I think it`s smart to focus more on the guys you know best. Of course, if you keep betting on them to win that`s a different matter, but it`s really not the case with Thiem.
All in all, it`s probably a combination of me being stupider than I appear and you not having a completely accurate picture of my bets 🙂
It’s the end of the first set and Thiem’s odds are about 1.50 so trading here is a good opportunity. Also I think Rostick has a good point with following some players. I do it regularly because I see something in them or because I believe they have potential. If I see that over a longer period of time they caused a loss I’ll start to rethink my initial analysis.
Just an idea Rostick, someone much better than me in tennis could post a list of talented payers to watch especially in women’s tennis the are many.
I agree, as long as it`s done properly at betfair or equivalent. No point losing the value at regular bookies.
The idea is nice, but there are many specialized websites for that, I think it`s better to keep it simple.
Great performance from thiem.but sadly almoust like always the verdict is the same ..lost
yep, that pretty much sums it up. a good bet surely at these odds, but you also have to win some.
thiem had him in hand..in set five he had to balls on his seve to make it 4-1.. at the end he lost 4-6,he served great allmost the entire game and then suddenly he did not anymore. he does not have a champion blood that is for sure
Clearly he screwed it up at the end. I think he was also the slightly better player in the second set. No doubt, Verdasco stole the win, but it happens.
Thiem is still young and met an experienced player, so I`d give him a second chance, he could become a champion, who knows. On the other hand, to choke against the most notorious chocker in tennis, that`s not a good sign.