Shelbourne – Dundalk

Huge game today in Ireland, as both teams are in desperate need of points to achieve their contrasting objectives. Earlier in the season, Dundalk defeated Shelbourne at home, 1-0 and the scenario could be repeated today.

The hosts are sitting (not too comfortable) on the 10th place with the same number of points as the 11th placed Bray Wanderers and just two points above the last placed Bohemians. Shelbourne had a horrific season until a few weeks ago, when they started winning games, and they are currently in some great form, with 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 games. It has to be said though that Shelbourne did not meet a top 5 team in this time span.

Dundalk is the Cinderella of this years Irish Premier League. Not expected to do much at the beginning of the season, Dundalk is currently on the second place, just one point behind leaders St. Patricks. The visitors don`t have too many star players, but they are a strong, enthusiastic team with great cohesion and tactical knowledge. It is clear that they will fight for the title, nobody can consider them a fluke anymore. Last week they totally outplayed strong Shamrock Rovers for a 3-1 win. Dundalk is playing excellent lately, with 7 wins in their last 9 games and just two points lost in the last last five rounds (2-2 vs. Cork).

Shelbourne is very poor at home, losing 7 out of 11 matches on home turf, while Dundalk is the best away team in the league, with 8 victories out of 11 matches. This does not sound good for today`s hosts. Shelbourne is also incapable to hold better teams to draws – usually they win or lose, especially at home, and it`s highly unlikely they could beat Dundalk. Note that Shelbourne has the worst offense int he league, so it will be hard for them to score. Dundalk should have the whole 90 minutes to look for a winning goal.

The hosts will miss 5 important players (Leech, Crowley, Memery, Sheerin, Bayly), and they don`t have the quality in numbers to replace them. Dundalk also has some problems, but smaller ones, with just Ward and Mountey being out, plus Rossiter doubtful.

Despite Shelbourne`s recent form, they don`t have enough to challenge Dundalk today. Their form is owed to poor opposition, while Dundalk is in even better form and against better opponents. We are getting a value bet here because of the hosts’ recent results. Taking into account the class difference and the home-away record, Dundalk should take the three points today and stick close behind the first place or even overtake the leaders (St. Patricks has a tough game at Shamrock). They are just playing way better football than Shelbourne.

My pick is Dundalk to win this. Somehow they only manage to find a way to subdue opponents, and I see no reasons for this to be any different today. Shelbourne – Dundalk 0-1 would be my call.

Pick: Dundalk
Odds: 2.00 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8
Event date: 9 August