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Romanian team Astra Giurgiu is riding a 1-0 first leg advantage as they play host to Scottish side Inverness Caledonian Thistle in the reverse leg of this Europa League second qualifying round tie.
Astra has a good team this year, probably Top 3 in Romania quality wise, but their performance has been underwhelming. They have just 1 point in 2 rounds in Liga 1 and lost 1-5 to ASA Targu Mures over the weekend. Now there are talks about some of their best players leaving, so things are not exactly going great. They did win the first leg in Scotland, but they didn`t really deserve to – Inverness was just as good, if not better, as they dominated every aspect of the game from possession to goalscoring chances. Astra was more clinical, scoring a free kick and probably experience played a part in that result.
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The Scottish side finished 3rd last season in the Premiership but, despite playing well and being unlucky in the first leg, they obviously don`t have the quality required to play in the next rounds of Europa League. They are simply the best of the worst in Scotland, as only Celtic and partially Aberdeen matter there right now. Inverness might choose a defensive approach today, despite needing to score. The coach stated that they don`t want to be out of the tie after the first half, they will take their time, concede possession, try to keep a clean sheet and hit on the break later on. A surprisingly detailed leak of their gameplan and I don`t think the manager was playing mindgames.
Looking at the statements from Inverness’ coach and considering Astra’s poor form, I don`t think the Romanians will have it easy. On the other hand, Inverness is also unlikely to win the match. It seems like we could see this match being tied for a long time and eventually Astra will probably get a close win late on, when the Scots will have no choice but to open up.
I will use a half time bet here and my tip is a draw after 45 minutes. You have to feel it is the logical outcome considering the first leg result and how that match was played – even without taking into account Inverness’ reported gameplan for today. Prediction: Astra Giurgiu – Inverness CT 1-0 (0-0 half time).
Pick: Half time draw
Odds: 2.30 @ Bet365
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 9.10
Event date: 23 July
