Astana – APOEL

FC Astana will take on APOEL Nicosia in the Champions League playoffs, with the big prize being group stage football for the winner of the tie.

After a great win over Maribor in the second qualifying round, Astana was very fortunate to pass the 3rd round of the UCL – not that they did not deserve it, but they defeated HJK 4-3 aggregate via a 93rd minute goal. Maybe Astana wanted to qualify a bit easier, but on the other hand they proved huge character. After 0-0 in the first leg, they fell down 1-2 at home, also had to play 20 minutes with 10 men, so to overcome all those factors says a lot about them. The hosts just started the playoffs in Kazakhstan 10 days ago and did it in very solid fashion with a 1-0 road win at title rivals Aktobe. Atmosphere in the dressing room is surely as positive as it can be.

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APOEL had some unexpected problems in the reverse leg against Midtjylland, despite securing a 2-1 win on the road in the first leg. In Cyprus, Midtjylland won 1-0 (had an extra men for 60 minutes but were in control and leading even until than) – nevertheless, APOEL got trough via away goals. The Nicosia side had similar problems in the previous qualifying round, passing Vardar via the same criteria of away goals. APOEL didn`t start the domestic league, but lost the Cypriot Supercup last week via penalties.

Team news: Twumasi (Astana) and Vincius (APOEL) are suspended after being red carded in the previous round of the Champions League.

APOEL is a better team than Astana, but they are not looking good right now and also have the disadvantage of not playing competitive football in Cyprus. Astana hasn`t lost at home in the last 20 matches and exactly one year, since Villarreal beat them 3-0 in Europa League. In this timespan, the Kazakh side won 14 times.

Looking at all these facts, you have to give the hosts an edge here and I reckon they will pull off a close win. They defeated Maribor 3-1 two rounds ago, so they proved they can defeat teams that are on APOEL’s level. My tip is Astana to win with a 0,25 asian handicap. Prediction: FC Astana – APOEL Nicosia 2-1.

Pick: Astana (-0,25 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.88 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.04
Event date: 18 August