APOEL – Astana

APOEL Nicosia will try to overcome a 0-1 first leg deficit when they take on Kazakhstan’s FC Astana in the Champions League playoffs second leg.

The 0-1 defeat in Kazakhstan was just another poor showing from a string of bad matches for APOEL, which included a 0-1 home loss to Midtjylland (after a 2-1 win away) and losing the Cyprus Supercup. APOEL fell down early in the first leg and even if they took control after that, they didn`t really mount a huge amount of pressure and probably deserved to lose in the end. The bright spot for APOEL is that they finally got a win this weekend in the first round of the Cypriot league – a convincing 5-1 road victory over Ermis.

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Astana put on another great home performance in the first leg, making it 3 wins out of 3 matches at home in this years’ Champions League qualifiers (also beat Maribor 3-1 and HJK 4-3). The Kazakhstan Champions are in great form, with 6 wins and 1 draw in the last 7 matches, including a solid 1-0 road win over title rivals Aktobe. However, the visitors will need to step up their performance on the road, because they are yet to score a goal in this European season away from home (0-1 vs. Maribor, 0-0 vs. HJK).

Astana is an excellent home team, they are actually undefeated at home for more than 1 year in all competitions, but they are vulnerable on the road. Considering that they struggled to put away an out of form APOEL side at home makes me believe that they are unlikely to put a strong challenge on the road – especially since APOEL seems to be back in form now and also finally started the league.

Astana had a lot going for them last week, they got a good result but were not better than APOEL. Even if Astana hit top form at the right time, this will be much more difficult and considering the vast advantage in experience that APOEL has, alongside the quality difference, I trust the hosts to edge it. My tip is APOEL to win – also taking into account that Astana will not be bothered by a 1 goal loss, especially if it`s 1-2 or 2-3. An 8 units stake seems like a reasonable bet here. Prediction: APOEL Nicosia – FC Astana 1-0 (2-0 extra time).

Pick: APOEL Nicosia
Odds: 1.97 @ Smart Live Sports
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.76
Event date: 26 August