Tsonga – Cilic

Frenchman Jo Wilfried Tsonga and reigning champion Marin Cilic from Croatia will square off in what apparently seems to be an evenly matched quarterfinal clash at the 2015 US Open.

Tsonga was an interesting story this year – coming back after injury, not doing much, exploding in the Roland Garros to reach the semifinals and then again not doing much (or anything really) until the US Open. But at Flushing Meadows Tsonga found his groove again, posting 4 straight set wins to reach the quarters. Granted the opponents were not that great (Nieminen, Granollers, Stakhovsky and Paire), but Jo Wilfried did an excellent job to play his own game, avoiding even playing a single tiebreak.

Most importantly, Tsonga was not broken once so far in the Open and only Stakhovsky managed to muster any break points against him (two, both saved). If Jo Wilfried keeps up this colossal serving performance, there aren`t many players able to take him on.

Cilic had a very poor run after winning the US Open last year and he is still yet to get close to that level, but the Croatian is clearly feeling good at Flushing Meadows and seemed rejuvenated these past two weeks, posting his best result of the year. However, Marin is not quite at last years’ level and, like Tsonga, he had a pretty easy schedule (Pella, Donskoy, Kukushkin, Chardy). But unlike Tsonga, Cilic struggled in some of his matches here, lost 3 sets and was actually close to going out in the third round against Kukushkin. He also had an injury issue last round, rolling his angle against Chardy, but eventually taking the win in 4 sets.

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Marin Cilic leads the Head 2 Head against Tsonga 4-3 and actually won the previous 3 meetings in straight sets. The Head 2 Head seems to be a bit of an issue for Jo Wilfried, but on the other hand the Frenchman leads 3-2 on hard courts.

Cilic really needs to come up with something special to beat Tsonga in this kind of form and anything less than the tennis he showed last year here might not be enough. But Cilic hasn`t gotten anywhere near that level in the last 12 months, even in the past week he was shaky at times, despite playing better than he did for most of the season. A combination of decent form, easy schedule and desperation to defend ranking points got Cilic thus far, but I can`t see him reaching the semifinals – not the way he`s playing and more importantly not the way Tsonga is playing. Look, Cilic is in a good rhythm, that is for sure, but he is not at that top level of his form, while Tsonga is – in the end, this should make the difference.

The Frenchman already proved himself on the Grand Slam stage this season, he`s full of confidence and serving as good as he ever had. Look for Jo Wilfried to put pressure on Cilic by holding his serve and eventually forcing errors from the Croatian on the return. It also remains to be seen if Cilic will be affected by rolling his ankle in the previous round.

All in all, my tip here is a Jo Wilfried Tsonga win and I will actually bet maximum stakes on this one. Prediction: Jo Wilfried Tsonga – Marin Cilic 6-4 3-6 6-3 6-4.

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Pick: Tsonga
Odds: 1.67 @ William Hill
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 6.70
Event date: 8 September