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Hosts Slovenia will take on Estonia in Maribor, looking to save themselves from what turned out to be a very surprising situation in the Euro 2016 qualifying Group E.
Two rounds ago, Slovenia was tied in points with Switzerland and not too much behind England, a race in three for the Top 2 positions, without any other interference. However, to consecutive losses, coupled with England, Switzerland and Estonia all winning their last two matches, sent Slovenia on the 4th spot – with virtually no chance to qualify directly, but now also 1 point behind Estonia in the race for the playoffs.
However, things are not as bad as they look for the hosts. Slovenia had tough matches against England (home) and Switzerland (away), losing both times 2-3, playing good football. Slovenia actually led Switzerland 2-0 until the 80th minute on Saturday, but managed to lose it in incredible fashion. On one hand it was a good performance, on the other hand the Slovenians may be affected from that dramatic and crucial defeat.
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The good thing for Slovenia is that Estonia isn`t exactly playing lights out, despite their surprising emergence to the third position. Estonia had an easy schedule lately, playing against San Marino (2-0) and Lithuania (1-0), both times at home. Needless to say, the results are not exactly impressive – Estonia simply benefited from the schedule and treated the game in pragmatic fashion, getting the points nothing more. Estonia also defeated Slovenia 1-0 earlier in this Group, but did not score a single goal in the other 4 matches, barely getting a 0-0 draw in San Marino to complete their 10 point tally.
This is a game in which stats are misleading and do not tell the whole story. Slovenia is actually playing solid football right now and if they don`t collapse mentally after those last 10 minutes in Switzerland, they should easily get back to winning ways against an admirable but limited Estonia side. The visitors are decent at home, but are a non factor on the road – failing to score a single goal in this campaign away, failing to beat even San Marino.
It has been a perfect situation schedule-wise for Estonia lately, but I can see a desperate Slovenia side bouncing back, blowing away the recent stats regarding results and putting a foothold on that 3rd place at home. Their excellent midfield which features the likes of Kampl, Ilicic, Kurtic or Birsa should be competent enough to dominate possession big time in Maribor and chances should come.
My tip is Slovenia to win. I won`t even risk a -1 asian handicap, as Estonia defends well and Slovenia just wants the three points. The odds on the straight Slovenia win are good enough for me. Prediction: Slovenia – Estonia 2-0.
Pick: Slovenia
Odds: 1.60 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 4.80
Event date: 8 September
