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Novak Djokovic and Marin Cilic will square off in the US Open semifinals – a match that seems one sided on paper, but which can quickly become unpredictable in certain circumstances.
Djokovic is on the back of a 4 set win against Feliciano Lopez, a solid match from the Serbian, but he did show some weaknesses, like he did against Bautista Agut for example, where he also lost a set. If we think about the losses in Cincinnati and Montreal against Federer and Murray, one can say that Djokovic is not quite at his best right now – but Nole is rock solid, he`s doing what he needs to do to win matches and one should expect him to be even stronger in the final stages.
I have to say Cilic was not that great so far, losing sets to Kukushkin and Chardy and not playing at the level he did last year. I also believe he would have lost against Tsonga if the Frenchman did not struggle with an injury in the first two sets of Cilic`s 6-4 6-4 3-6 6-7 6-4 win. However, suddenly, in the last set of that match, Cilic showed why he is the defending champion here. The last 6-7 games were an unbelievable display of attacking tennis from the Croatian and he will obviously hope to sustain that against Djokovic as well. He will surely need it.
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Djokovic leads the Head 2 Head 13-0, so he obviously holds Cilic’s number, but at a closet look we can see a couple of very close matches. We remember Cilic pushing Djokovic big time in 2014, at Roland Garros and especially at Wimbledon, a match that Marin probably should have won. As a reigning Grand Slam champion in good form, Cilic is also a different player right now.
I will back Cilic to win here. This is obviously a long shot, but my point is that Cilic CAN beat Djokovic if he plays at he best – like he played last year in the semis or the finals, like he did this year in the final set against Tsonga. Djokovic did show some weakness so far and, even though I am under no impression that he will not be excellent in this one, I believe it`s worth taking a risk on Cilic for a fantastic return of investment. After all, who thought Nole would lose to Nishikori in last years’ semifinals?
No handicaps or under / overs here, I am going with the best value. My tip is Cilic to win. No point in giving a correct score prediction like we usually do, because obviously this is a value-bet and like (almost) everybody I think Djokovic will eventually win – but hopefully Marin will be able to build on that last set against Tsonga and show us what he showed last year. If that happens, I believe he will win. 2-3 units should be more than enough to stake on this bet.
Watch Djokovic vs. Cilic —— US Open live streaming available for players at Bet365.
Pick: Cilic
Odds: 7.71 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 3
Possible profit: 20.13
Event date: 11 September
