Djokovic – Federer

Mouthwatering final at the 2015 US Open, with Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer both deserving finalists in what is expected to be a match for the ages.

Djokovic cruised past Cilic in the semifinals, allowing the reigning champion just three games. Cilic was injured though and it was a nice touch from him to compete and finish the match despite his angle issues, but even so Djokovic was rock solid to keep his cool, return very well and keep the errors down. Rock solid is actually the best word to describe Nole`s road so far, doing what he needed to do in order to win, despite the lost sets against Bautista Agut and Lopez. The serbian will hope to bag the most important title in the US hard court swing after losing to Murray (Rogers cup) and Federer (Cincinnati).

Federer produced another masterclass performance in the finals, beating Wawrinka 6-4 6-3 6-1 – confiriming the fact that he`s really playing his best tennis since his 2005-2007 glory days. And Wawrinka did not play too bad, especially in the first two sets! It has been a magnificent US hard court swing for Federer, who has not dropped a set in the last two tournaments (Cincinnati, US Open) and lost serve just twice in the process! Obviously the World No.2 is playing the best tennis on tour right now, but the question is if he can do it against Djokovic as well. He did it in convincing fashion in the Cincinnati final, but a 3 out of 5 setter in a Grand Slam final will be different, like we saw at Wimbledon.

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Federer has a 21-20 advantage in the Head 2 Head department (16-14 on hard) and, like I always said, he generally defeated Djokovic when he played his best tennis – most recently 3 weeks ago in Cincinnati. However, recently Djokovic got the better of Federer in Grand Slam final – the last two at Wimbledon, each time Federer coming into the matches in great form. The big question is if Roger can keep up physically with a guy like Nole for the duration of 4 or 5 sets. This year`s Wimbledon final is a sign of worry for Federer, because he was playing fantastic prior to the last act, he was on his best surface, but somehow deflated in the final, not looking as sharp and losing in 4 sets.

That Wimbledon final is a bit scary when you`re talking about a bet on Federer to win today. He seems to be playing even better now, has not lost a single set in ages, but he was playing very well in Wimby and he was nowhere to be found in the final against Nole, looking less aggressive, being hurt on serve by Djokovic’s returns and starting to fade away as the match got longer. It was on his best surface as well, but on the bright side the faster courts at this years’ US Open have helped him immensely.

If Federer keeps up the same level of play and if he doesn`t tire (in case he doesn`t win quick), he should take this – I don`t think many people can argue against that. He`s playing better tennis right now and I reckon the most important asset of his game is his rejuvenated return. Previous matches against Djokovic saw him eventually capitulate on his own serve after being unable to put pressure on the Djokovic serve. This time around he should be able to get more break points, like we saw in Cincinnati. All in all, despite getting burned in the last two Grand Slam final between the two, I think the pros definitely outweight the cons this time around and more importantly the odds are over evens.

My tip is Federer to win. Another good bet would be “whoever wins the first set wins the match”. It is a really solid option, it happened in all of the previous 6 matches and it has logic – if Federer starts well it means he is coming into the final with the same incredible level and should end up being dominant. If Djokovic wins it, it will be difficult for Roger to come back due to his age. But the odds are too short for me at 1.44, so I`m sticking with a Federer win with reasonable stakes. Surely the bet makes sense.

An 8 units stake seems fair. Prediction: Roger Federer – Novak Djokovic 6-4 7-6 3-6 6-3.

Watch Djokovic vs Federer – 2015 US Open final live streaming for players at Bet365.

Pick: Federer
Odds: 2.14 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 9.12
Event date: 13 September